Mike Tomlin is Manufacturing Wins
Oct 22, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin celebrates the victory against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
My older brother, Brad, is something of a football savant. As kids, we would go to our oldest brother’s sporting events. We would arrive at the game and I would head to the playground to eat wood chips and go down the slide face-first. Brad would follow our parents to sit in the stands and watch intently. His knowledge of each sport grew game after game. He never lost this trait. When we got older, Brad and I would go to games at Heinz Field whenever we had the chance. Together, we were lucky enough to witness some of the greatest games in recent history. It’s a cornerstone of our friendship.
We live in different states now, so walks along the North Shore of Pittsburgh together are infrequent. Instead, we resort to phone calls on Thursdays to discuss the upcoming match-ups and text throughout the games. Most of those texts contain words I can’t include in this article.
During those Thursday phone calls, though, he always volunteers statistics he is looking for and identifies the keys to Steelers victory. More often than not, he mentions turnovers.
Kenny Pickett has been frustrating for exactly 75% of each game this season. I am confident in that statistic because he seems to come alive the moment 15:00 minutes are put up on the scoreboard next to the 4th quarter identifier.
The statistics, and the eye tests, in the first 3 quarters of nearly every game suggest that Kenny Pickett is still behind on his reads, and the offense doesn’t go as a result. It’s ugly, it raises my blood pressure, but they have emerged 4-2 after week seven. The main reason is what my brother talks about.
The Steelers turnover margin is one of the highest in the league. A great deal of that is due to TJ Watt and his friends on the defensive side of the ball. The defense has created turnovers in nearly every way possible. Including forcing long field goals for opposing kickers. Not every team with a defense that takes the ball away has the turnover margin that the Steelers boast. The difference? Quarterbacks that give the ball away.
Kenny Pickett’s numbers are down from last year. His QBR has dropped, along with his completion percentage. No matter how you spin it, fans want these numbers up, but another number that is plummeting by the week is his interception rate.
The Steelers have not lost a game in which Kenny Pickett’s stat sheet remains “zero” in the INT column. In fact, it seems to be a nearly perfect predictor. In only one outing that Pickett turned the ball over did the Steelers win. That was against the Browns in week two and if you recall, the Steelers’ defense was exceptional at taking the ball away.
This week, the Steelers scored on each of their turnovers. The interception, and the two missed field goals by Brett Maher led to 17 of their 25 points.
It sounds simple, but it isn’t. Teams that are deemed top-tier have been snake-bitten by elite quarterbacks doing too much all season. Josh Allen, for example, has thrown a pick in 5 of his seven games this season, and he is averaging over one interception per game. They’re also 1-3 in one-score games. The Steelers haven’t lost a one-score game this season.
This isn’t a broad brush statement. There are quarterbacks that are turning the ball over and still having a great deal of success. Jalen Hurts is a prime example– he is also an outlier.
My point is that this is by design. Mike Tomlin has things under control. He is “manufacturing wins” and he likes it that way. Tomlin has Pickett making safe throws, and he elects to take very few dangerous shots down the field. His decision-making frustrates fans constantly. Kneeling out half with time left on the clock, and making conservative decisions early in games draws the ire of yinzers everywhere. But they are winning.
Kenny Pickett isn’t “there” yet. He isn’t putting up MVP numbers, nor is he a “game-manager.” He’s something else, and I don’t know if there is a name for it. What I do know is that he has been largely taking care of the football. Something he did down the stretch last year as well. The result was an impressive 7-game record and a chance to make the playoffs.
Don’t hold your breath for the offense to catch fire, it likely won’t, but it is worth believing that this trend will continue. If the game is close going into the fourth quarter, Tomlin and the Steelers are probably happy. So, get a physical and check your blood pressure, grin and bear it through 3 quarters, and believe that if the Steelers don’t give the ball away, the game is theirs for the taking.
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