How Good Does Pittsburgh’s Offense Need To Be?
Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
The making of a playoff-contending NFL team looks different from year to year. As coaches evolve new schemes and the league develops new rules, the strategy for constructing an ideal roster remains a moving target.
A few decades ago, it was paramount to control the ball and milk the clock. Strong running backs were the centerpiece of the offense, and the need to rack up points was secondary to having a strong defense. Times have changed. Air-raid offenses, gadget plays, and bend-don’t-break defenses have become the way of the NFL. Many teams have adapted quickly. The Pittsburgh Steelers, however, are still in flux, particularly compared to their AFC counterparts.
Anticipation for a revamped Steelers offense has been high since Kenny Pickett led two comebacks and finished the season winning five of his last seven games. But the Killer Bees aren’t about to walk through that door. The current unit is still a far cry from the Steelers teams that expected 20 points by halftime. And that’s okay.
With the current composition of the defense, the need for a highly explosive offense isn’t as significant. What the Steelers do need, if they intend to make a serious run at the playoffs, is a unit that consistently performs to a “certain level.”
Taking a look at the top teams, particularly those that entered the playoffs in a competitive division, a few major elements stick out. All of the teams had top-performing defenses (points allowed per game) or offenses (points per game) and were complemented by a top 50% unit on the other side of the ball.
While Pittsburgh’s defense was in the top 10, the offense was in the bottom 10 based on scoring average. The team finished in the top 10 for turnover ratio, largely thanks to the defense. It’s also worth noting that a lack of production from the offense puts great strain on a defense. Pittsburgh defenders weren’t getting much time to rest between series.
As camp continues, Pickett and his arsenal of pass-catching weapons have shown some development. Despite one particular day of struggles from the second-year quarterback, Pickett has been praised for his improved size and arm strength.
Meanwhile, the wide receiver room is working to live up to expectations.George Pickens’ viral highlight-reel catch was a bit of an outlier, but the offense’s overall performance in 7 Shots practice drills is on a positive trend against a stout defense.
So, what exactly do the Steelers need from this new offense to have a successful 2023? In short, they need to convert. Pittsburgh finished fifth in the league in time of possession, which at first glance sounds positive. However, only three of the top 10 teams in the time of possession category made the playoffs: the twin NFC powerhouses of the Philadelphia Eagles and the San Francisco 49ers. Both Philly and San Fran had high-caliber groups on both sides of the ball.
These surprising statistics tell you just how much football strategy has changed over the decade. The Baltimore Ravens were the only other AFC team, along with Pittsburgh, to make that top-10 list for controlling the time of possession — and that was likely in large part due to being with Lamar Jackson for a third of the season.
The reason Pittsburgh controls the clock but doesn’t score is due to their lack of a downfield attack, compounded by woes in the red zone. Pickett averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt, which is close to last in the league. In contrast, all four quarterbacks who made it to their respective conference championships averaged a full yard more per attempt.
Pittsburgh also finished 22nd in converting red zone visits into touchdowns. On the other hand, the top performers in the postseason were all grouped in the top five yards per attempt, and every team that won a playoff game was in the top 10 in red-zone conversion.
If the Steelers maintain their defensive prowess in 2023, which is the expectation based on the current roster, the offense, led by Matt Canada and Kenny Pickett, need to push the ball deep. If they create a legitimate downfield attack, increasing their yards per attempt by nearly 1.5 yards, and they construct a competent red-zone offense, hopes should be high for a Steelers playoff appearance this winter.
Of course, these aren’t simple fixes. These categories are incredibly important because they measure such difficult tasks.But these are the metrics to use to judge the offense’s progress. And, thankfully, making these improvements won’t require a full overhaul of the offense. If the Steelers can utilize their new offensive weapons and build on the experience of Kenny Pickett and George Pickens, they should be able to hone a passing attack that points them directly at the playoffs.
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