Does “Revived” Russell Wilson Have What It Takes To Age Gracefully?
Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
It’s easy to have a honeymoon period before the season even starts, but Russell Wilson is all optimism at the start of the Pittsburgh Steelers training camp. “I feel revived in every way, mentally, emotionally, and spiritually,” he told the media on Wednesday. “I feel confident.”
He’s also turning 36 later this season, which is maybe not the best age for your most important position on the field to be in the NFL. Wilson doesn’t care, though. “Man, I feel the fountain of youth,” he declares.
Technically, the Steelers don’t need Wilson to discover that which Ponce de Leon couldn’t in the 15th-century. Their eggs aren’t entirely in Wilson’s basket, as they have a viable backup option in 25-year-old Justin Fields. Still, there’s little doubt that their best way forward is for Wilson to get a couple of sips out of the fountain, as he carries the most upside for the Steelers, even at 36.
Fields was a former first-round pick on a disaster of a Bears team, sure, but even a mediocre Wilson out-performed Fields over the last two years. Fields got a combined 28 starts, throwing for 4804 yards and a 33-to-20 touchdown to interception ratio. Meanwhile, Wilson’s 30 starts saw him rack up 6594 yards with a 42-to-19 TD-to-INT ratio. Adding Fields’ advantages with his feet by taking the running game into account closes the gap somewhat, but Fields still lags behind Wilson by 608 total yards and three touchdowns.
Normal rules of aging in sports would suggest that Wilson would keep declining while Fields could be on the ascent. That might still hold, but the game is different for quarterbacks today. They’re more protected by the rules, less subject to wear-and-tear, and advances in training, diet, and general health keeps players of all sports in their uniforms longer than ever before. (This is your reminder to wish LeBron James a happy 40th birthday later this year.)
Can Wilson rebound back to a high level of play? What have quarterbacks similar to him done in the past? Let’s take a quick look.
Pro Football Reference has a “Similar Players” tool that tracks players throughout their careers to match them with ones with comparable arcs. Through 11 seasons, for example, Matt Ryan is Wilson’s No. 1 comparable. Does it pass the sniff test?
Wilson’s first 11 seasons: 173 games, 64.6 completion%, 40583 yards, 308 TD, 98 INT
Ryan’s first 11 seasons: 174 games, 65.3 completion%, 46270 yards, 295 TD, 133 INT
Sure, checks out.
Ryan’s in that No. 1 spot compared to Wilson, then it’s Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Fran Tarkenton, and Dan Marino rounding out the top-5 Wilson comparables through 11 seasons. Given the different landscape of the NFL from Tarkenton and Marino’s days, we’ll probably throw out those comparables for modern ones. Fortunately, the next two quarterbacks on this list are Drew Brees and Philip Rivers, who are both era-appropriate.
So we’ve got Ryan, Favre, Manning, Brees, and Rivers. The first question to ask is: How did they do at 36? If we Frankenstein these five together, we get a season that looks like this:
16 GP; 387 completions on 590 attempts (65.6%); 4379 yards; 27-to-15 TD-to-INT
Needless to say, if this is Wilson next season, the Steelers are gonna be a wagon. That stat line would have put Wilson fourth in the NFL in yards last season (behind Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, and Dak Prescott) tied for 8th with Patrick Mahomes in touchdowns, and with a 92.3 quarterback rating equivalent to Mahomes (92.6), Matthew Stafford (92.5), and Josh Allen (92.2).
Then again, Wilson struggled by his standards over the past two seasons in Denver. Does that put him in a significantly worse spot than his comparables? Once again, we’ll Frankenstein his Top-5 modern similar quarterbacks through their ages-34 and 35 seasons (on a per-16 game average, throwing out Manning’s missed age-35 season), and compare that to Wilson during that same timespan:
Wilson: 314 completions on 496 attempts (63.3%); 3517 yards; 22 TDs; 10 INT
Frankenstein: 404 completions on 613 attempts (65.9%); 4530 yards; 31 TD; 16 INT
Maybe it’s not fair to call Wilson a “game manager,” but Denver certainly didn’t let him air it out like those five top quarterbacks were allowed to do in their mid-30s. It’s probably not fair to expect Wilson to quite reach those heights of the Ryan/Favre/Manning/Brees/Rivers age-36 amalgam. If we want to compare that earlier statline to Wilson’s career-best seasons, we get this:
Wilson (Career-bests): 384 completions on 558 attempts (68.8%); 4219 yards; 40 TDs; 5 INT
Frankenstein (age-36): 360 completions on 590 attempts (65.6%); 4379 yards; 27 TDs; 15 INT
Sure, Wilson may have upside in the accuracy and ball protection categories, and maybe even touchdowns if the Steelers can add another weapon. But Wilson is probably never gonna rack up that raw yardage, so how do we adjust our expectations for that?
Comparing our Frankenstein from ages 34-35 to the 36-year-old version, we see a lot of stability. The accuracy is nearly identical, attempts drop about 3.8%, with yardage decreasing 3.4%, touchdowns dropping 13.1%, and interceptions going down by 6.3%. What happens if we run Russell’s age-34-and-35 seasons through that filter?
Wilson (est. age 36): 302 completions on 477 attempts (63.3%); 3397 yards; 19 TD; 9 INT
Can the Steelers live with that stat line? Perhaps. The easiest comparable to make to what this version of Wilson might provide is, ironically, Wilson’s replacement in Seattle: Geno Smith. While Smith was able to throw downfield a bit more than Wilson (Smith gained 3624 passing yards last year), he was able to fire off 20 touchdowns and protect the ball by limiting his interceptions to nine.
It’s not as sexy as Wilson’s Hall of Fame comparables, but Smith’s play last year was enough to take Seattle to an 8-7 record in his starts (9-8 overall). Wilson is arguably walking into a better situation, given that Pittsburgh is coming off a 10-7 season despite their monstrous three-headed monster of Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph. Maybe Wilson did find the Fountain of Youth and is able to get closer to his peak days in Seattle. If not, though, a more “game manager” style of quarterbacking could serve the Steelers just fine.
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