What History Says About the Detroit Lions’ Future
Credit: Junfu Han via Imagn Images
It’s not hard to find a Detroit Lions fan who couldn’t bring themselves to watch the Super Bowl. All season long, that was a game they believed they should be playing in. They were 15-2, had the league’s best offense, and had to win just two games at Ford Field to get to New Orleans. Instead, they were bounced in the Divisional Round and forced to watch the Philadelphia Eagles battle the Kansas City Chiefs for the Lombardi Trophy.
Most fans probably threw up in their mouths when the Eagles proceeded to rout the Chiefs. They probably saw Dan Campbell, not Nick Siriani, taking a Gatorade bath like a champ and Jared Goff holding up the Lombardi Trophy instead of Jalen Hurts. But while they could see that vision, it simply wasn’t meant to be.
The weeks after the game have come with a mix of emotions. Lions fans are optimistic, feeling their postseason failures are a gateway to future success. Meanwhile, the Lions’ head coach has openly lamented how teams only get so many shots at winning it all when they lost in the NFC Championship Game two years ago.
It’s a complicated situation, but it’s one that history gives the Lions quite a bit of optimism going forward.
For example, two years ago, the Eagles were where the Lions are now. They battled Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl and came up short, thanks to a late holding call on James Bradbury. A transition year was necessary to fix some of Philadelphia’s flaws both on the offensive and defensive lines. A.J. Brown, Jalen Carter, Cooper DeJean, and Quinyon Mitchell were just some of the players that came aboard and the Eagles got another shot at the king – and they didn’t miss.
The Eagles took their playoff failure, and the ensuing two seasons helped Howie Roseman build a juggernaut in Philadelphia. They had the framework of a championship-level team, but those extra pieces pushed them over the top. And that Eagles team is hardly the only one that bounced back after suffering a couple of playoff disappointments like the Lions just experienced.
The Denver Broncos were an example from the 2010s. It’s easier to dust yourself off after a difficult year when Peyton Manning is your quarterback, but not so much when he fades into the twilight of his career with a major neck surgery in his recent past. Manning led the Broncos to the Super Bowl with a then NFL-record 55 touchdown passes in 2013 but Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks smoked them. Denver was upset by his former team, the Indianapolis Colts, in the Divisional Round the following year before making a championship run in 2015.
The move required a shift in philosophy. The Broncos had relied on a high-powered offense led by Manning, Demaryius Thomas, and Eric Decker, but needed to adapt as Manning’s arm started to give. Denver shifted into a defensive team led by Von Miller, Chris Harris Jr., and Shaquil Barrett, then added DeMarcus Ware as a veteran in free agency.
Although the Carolina Panthers marched into the Super Bowl with a 15-1 record and an MVP in Cam Newton, Denver’s defense made the ultimate difference in a 24-10 win in Super Bowl L.
These are the good stories, but coming up close can also end by not giving teams the shot at a championship they deserve.
The San Francisco 49ers are the current example in the NFC. Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch built a perennial power by the bay but they never could get over the hump. They tried with the high-priced, souped-up quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo, who led them to the Super Bowl in 2019. But an overthrow aimed for Emmanuel Sanders in the fourth quarter lowlighted a double-digit collapse in the fourth quarter and the 49ers lost to Mahomes and the Chiefs 31-20.
It took three years for the 49ers to get back to the Super Bowl, and they did it under a different teambuilding strategy. Instead of paying an average quarterback top dollar, they found Brock Purdy with the final pick of the 2022 Draft and loaded up their roster around him.
With playmakers like George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel on offense and Fred Warner and Nick Bosa leading the charge on defense, the 49ers returned to the Super Bowl in 2023 only to lose 25-22 in overtime. One year later, San Francisco is facing a massive contract extension for Purdy, a trade demand from Samuel, and the possibility of Kittle and Christian McCaffrey aging out.
Then there’s the AFC counterpart, the Buffalo Bills. Most of the teams referenced have been to the Super Bowl, but Buffalo is similar to the Lions in that they haven’t reached The Big Game.
Buffalo has its franchise quarterback in Josh Allen but hasn’t figured out how to build around it to topple Mahomes and the Chiefs. They brought in Miller in to shore up the defense and Stefon Diggs to be Allen’s top target. Eventually, the Bills traded Diggs as Allen’s second contract kicked in and went to a more ground-oriented attack with James Cook. While their adaptations have helped them reach the playoffs in seven of the past eight years, they’ve never reached the Super Bowl, coming one game short twice.
So who do the Lions mimic the most? It might be a combination of these teams.
The Lions are paying Goff, who may fall under the Garoppolo category, as a highly-paid, top-10 quarterback, but they also have the skill players that the 49ers have had during their latest run. Detroit could follow the Eagles’ blueprint by upgrading their defensive line this offseason or could go full 2010s Broncos by using most of their resources to build the defensive side.
Even then, they could just be like the Bills – a team that is always in the hunt but never good enough to have a shot at the title. Like Campbell said, teams only get so many shots. But the Lions have the personnel to make it happen, and they could find solace in how the Eagles were knocked down but they got up again to achieve their ultimate goal.
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