Was Detroit’s Week 18 Defense One-Time Magic Or A Bridge To The Super Bowl?
Credit: Junfu Han via Imagn Images
The Detroit Lions aren’t supposed to be here. Sure, the Lions reached the NFC Championship Game last season and were predicted to be one of the top teams in the conference this year. But those dreams were allegedly derailed after a mountain of injuries left Detroit scrambling for help.
Heading into the Divisional Round after their well-deserved first-round bye, it’s clear the Lions can score points — especially with David Montgomery expected to return. But Aaron Glenn’s defense has gotten a bad reputation since the Buffalo Bills dismantled them for 473 yards in a 48-42 loss on Dec. 15.
But when you look at the entire picture, he has done a masterful job of adapting to his constantly-shifting personnel and producing an effective unit in the wake of 13 players on injured reserve. Especially on Sunday night, where they held Sam Darnold and the explosive Minnesota Vikings offense to just nine points.
But can Glenn’s defense continue to play at that level? And is there an adjustment that needs to be made for Detroit to run through the playoff gauntlet?
You have to start with Glenn’s philosophy on defense. The Lions play one of the heaviest man coverage rates in the NFL. Terrion Arnold (307) and Amik Robertson (256) also have the most man coverage snaps in the league this season, and the Lions have had at least one defender in the top ten of man coverage snaps in each of the past three seasons, with Cameron Sutton ranking seventh (212) in 2023 and Jeff Okudah ranking ninth (186) in 2022.
But while Glenn has always had quantity with man coverage snaps, he’s increased his frequency this year. Kindle Vildor (53.4%), Robertson (50.9%), Arnold (46.4%), and (currently injured) Carlton Davis III (45.1%) all rank in the top seven of man coverage rates this season. While Glenn has deployed man coverage frequency, its effectiveness hasn’t been elite with Robertson’s 64.2 Pro Football Focus coverage grade leading the team with Davis (54.0), Vildor (52.0), and Arnold (45.0) each holding grades below 60.
The low grades are to be expected with a team with the most defensive pass interference penalties in the NFL. But it’s also part of the Russian Roulette experience that Glenn has played with his defense this season.
The Lions ranked 11th in blitz rate last season at 28.7%, and now have the second-highest blitz rate in the league this season at 34.6%. While that’s a sizable year-to-year bump, Glenn’s aggression isn’t exactly a new development, as he posted a 31.2 percent blitz rate back in 2022.
Still, the combination of increased man coverage and blitz rates is notable. Part of the decision could have been made when Aidan Hutchinson broke his leg. After collecting 7.5 sacks in the first five games, Hutchinson’s loss left Detroit scrambling to rebuild their defense on the fly. While injuries to Josh Paschal and Marcus Davenport didn’t help, Detroit has still managed to fourth in pressure rate at 26.2%.
According to PFF, that success showed up big-time in Week 18’s win over the Vikings, as Darnold was pressured on a whopping 48.9% of his dropbacks. Even if the Lions didn’t win every snap in man coverage, they were still getting in Darnold’s face, which fueled a meltdown for the Vikings on national television.
This entire body of work has Glenn’s name as a hot coaching candidate heading into the playoffs. But Lions fans just want to know if the defense can continue to hold serve over the next month.
Jayden Daniels, who’ll suit up at quarterback against the Lions on Saturday, has had a strong rookie season for the Washington Commanders but has a 76.0 passer rating under pressure, compared to 107.4 in a clean pocket. Daniels also has a 103.3 passer rating against the blitz, but those numbers are typically higher because of the inherent gamble defenses make on the back end when giving up a man in coverage.
The possibility of getting Hutchinson back can’t be ignored, as the Lions could continue to lean on their front four while getting just enough from their secondary in man coverage to put them over the top.
It’s not as simple as Glenn copying and pasting his game plan to beat the Vikings, but the general blueprint is something that he’s done all season long to great success. At this point, it’s up to the Lions to keep doing what got them here, and despite the injuries and flaws, Glenn has the Lions’ defense playing well enough to reach the Super Bowl.
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