The Niners Game Will Be A Sneaky Measuring Stick For the Lions Defense
Credit: Junfu Han via Imagn Images
With two games remaining, the Detroit Lions are in a great spot. On Monday Night, they’ll host a San Francisco 49ers team that is probably booking a tee time in Cabo. The following week, they’ll host the Minnesota Vikings with the chance to claim the No. 1 seed in the NFC once and for all.
It would be easy for the Lions to look at this week, tap the brakes, and gear up for a showdown with the Vikings. But there’s also an all-gas, no-brakes philosophy that has gotten them here, which suits them perfectly for their upcoming game, which could become a crash course for the playoffs.
This may be confusing. Why would the Lions, a team that is firmly in control of their playoff destiny, be worried about a team that has dropped five of their last six games? It’s because this is not about the 49ers, it’s about who is leading them on the sideline. Kyle Shanahan is one of the founding fathers of the modern NFL offense. Learning under his father Mike Shanahan at the beginning of his career, he teamed with current Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay to put their twist on a system that helped the Denver Broncos win a pair of Super Bowls in the late ’90s.
When Shanahan and McVay got their chance to run teams, it set off a family tree that would put Philip Rivers to shame. If you crossed paths with Shanahan or McVay at some point, it was gold at any future job interview, and several of their assistants — from Zac Taylor in Cincinnati to Matt LaFleur in Green Bay — started to thrive when they got their opportunity.
While it was fodder for comedic material then, this year’s playoff picture validates those decisions. Of the seven teams currently in the NFC playoffs, four of them — the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Green Bay Packers, the Vikings, and the Rams — are centered around what you could call “McShanahan” offenses. Those four teams rank no lower than 13th in Expected Points Added per play this season, while other McShanahan teams in the 49ers and Atlanta Falcons, while currently outside of the playoffs, rank 11th and 14th in that category, respectively.
With so many contenders running variations of the same thing, it’s good to get up close and personal with these teams before the playoffs. One of the staples of the McShanahan scheme is a strong passing game and the Packers (fourth), Buccaneers (seventh), and Vikings (eighth) all rank in the top eight in EPA per passing play.
While founding father McVay isn’t in that group, he’s managed to rank 14th in EPA per passing play despite losing Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Tyler Higbee for large chunks of this season. Even San Francisco ranks ninth in EPA per passing play, though a season-ending injury to Brandon Aiyuk has taken some wind out of the sails.
But if you look past the passing stats, you may see a common weakness in the running game. Liam Coen’s Bucs rank sixth in EPA per run this season, and LaFleur’s Packers rank 11th, but the Rams rank 23rd, and the Vikings’ running game has been Kevin O’Connell’s Rubik’s Cube, sitting at 26th this season. San Francisco (12th) and Atlanta (17th) also appear underwhelming on the ground, but their secret has been a strong success rate.
A runner’s success rate (as defined by Pro Football Reference) is the frequency a runner picks up 40% of yards to go on first down, 60% of yards to go on second down, and converts on third or fourth down. This season, there are 23 runners who have 100 attempts and are above the league average in success rate (49.4%) and eight of them are in McShanahan schemes.
Efficiency on the ground and big plays through the air are key points of this offense, and it’s up to the Lions to find a way to stop it. The Lions rank third in EPA against the pass this year at -0.09 but are 14th against the run at -0.05. Detroit’s opposing overall success rate of 41.1% is eighth in the league, but that figure will come under a microscope against the McShanahan teams.
So far, Detroit has played seven games against teams in the Shanahan or McVay coaching trees and has had mixed results. While they allowed 387 total yards in a Week 1 win over the Rams, Los Angeles also lost Nacua midway through that game. They rebounded to hold the Buccaneers to 216 total yards in Week 2, but a pair of offensive turnovers led to a rare loss in Detroit.
The Lions allowed 383 total yards against the Vikings in Week 7 but allowed over 400 yards in a Week 8 win over the non-playoff-bound Tennessee Titans (416) and a Week 9 win against the Packers (411). Detroit held Bobby Slowik’s offense to 248 yards in a Week 10 win over the Houston Texans and 298 yards in a Week 14 rematch with the Packers. Overall, Detroit is allowing 337 total yards per game against the McShanahan offenses.
But much like how the Rams are a stronger offensive team with Nacua and Kupp in the lineup, the Lions are a weaker defensive unit after losing 10 of their starters. While they were able to make things look easy in last week’s win over the Bears, that wasn’t the type of team or scheme that they’ll see in the playoffs.
The 49ers might be a checked-out team when they welcome the Lions on Monday night, but that doesn’t mean there’s something Detroit can’t learn. As long as San Francisco puts a credible effort forward, it will benefit the Lions to go against an offense similar to what they’ll face in the playoffs. It’s the perfect test for a team with championship aspirations, and getting a McShanahan team to warm up against before the stretch run might be the difference between an early exit and another deep run in January.
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