Are the Critics Wrong About Brett Howden’s New Contract?
Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images
The Vegas Golden Knights keep locking up players. First, Shea Theodore got his seven-year deal, then Kelly McCrimmon inked Brayden McNabb for three more years, and on Friday, the Knights swung big on Brett Howden‘s early breakout, signing the 26-year-old to a five-year extension with a $2.5 million cap hit.
Howden spent his last three seasons in Vegas, but is getting a bigger role than ever, rewarding the Knights with better results. Through 20 games, the 6-foot-2 center has eight goals and an assist, nearly matching his career-high in goals (9 in 47 games in 2021-22). By signing him now, the Knights are looking to get a big discount on a newly-minted top-six forward.
BRETT HOWDEN! 😮💨
His sixth goal of the season is the @Energizer overtime winner as the @GoldenKnights improve to 8-0-0 at home! pic.twitter.com/WhfWZ9mKIT
— NHL (@NHL) November 3, 2024
Look, $2.5 million isn’t a ton of money now. It’s a modest raise on his current $1.9 million cap hit, and next season he’s in line to be the 12th-highest-paid Knight. But those facts didn’t stop Hockey Stats Twitter from panning the deal.
Would I have rushed to sign him to an extension when he's on pace for 32 goals shooting 22%? Probably not. But then again I don't have a Stanley Cup so what do I know. pic.twitter.com/iaaPGZk9Ly
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) November 22, 2024
But will the Golden Knights be vindicated? No matter what happens, the Knights will already have a Stanley Cup with Howden, but other than that, history isn’t quite on Howden’s side. In his six seasons as an NHLer, Howden has been a negative player in Evolving-Hockey’s Standings Points Above Replacement — the only positive season being his first in Vegas. For every 82 games he’s played, he’s cost his team an average of 0.8 points in the standings.
Up until this year, Howden’s offensive production has been close to the bottom of the heap. There are 369 forwards who’ve played 1,500 5-on-5 minutes between 2021-22 and 2023-24, and Howden’s 1.37 points per hour ranks 273rd among that group. A big part of that problem? He hasn’t been able to create his own shot consistently. Among that same group, Howden is 335th in getting off unblocked shot attempts, and 349th in shots on goal per hour.
The Golden Knights might be paying market rate for what Howden provided (Evolving-Hockey projected Howden for a cap hit of ~$2.6 million for a five-year deal), but it’s safe to say that you can get a player with that kind of production for around the league-minimum.
Courtesy of Evolving-Hockey
So, Howden has to have some value-add for this to make sense for Vegas? What is it?
The Knights are clearly banking on Howden to keep up that improvement, but not because of experience or age. 26-year-old players don’t tend to make big-time leaps. But players who go from fourth-line roles to something bigger? Sometimes that unleashes something, and Vegas should know that better than anyone. Look at just about everyone who took the world by storm in their early years.
There’s a difference between playing 13 minutes per night with William Carrier, Keegan Kolesar, and Michael Amadio and 15 minutes per night alongside the likes of Tomas Hertl and Pavel Dorofeyev. The switch has been favorable to him, and the early returns show Howden is producing more than ever.
Courtesy of Evolving-Hockey
No one will say that an unsustainably high shooting percentage isn’t partly fueling his eight goals in 20 games, but there’s more to it than that. Moving to a top-six role with skilled linemates has allowed Howden to dramatically increase his shot volume. Last season, Howden set a career-high, shooting a measly 5.08 shots per hour. Now, Howden is fourth on the Golden Knights with 7.30 shots per hour. If that continues, his ceiling is raised considerably.
Combine that with his physical tools, and Vegas might have more than the rest of the world thinks in Howden. He’s a 6-foot-2 center who can skate, which might not matter a whole lot if it doesn’t create many shots, or come with tight-checking defense. But now that he is getting more looks at the net, it’s easier to bank on those attributes.
So, is this going to be a great contract? It, at the very least, should be a fair contract. The Knights have Howden locked up at a reasonable price for a half-decade, which takes him through his late-20s into his very early-30s. If he reverts to what he’s been before, then he’s a fourth-liner making something like fourth-line money. But if Howden keeps these improvements up in a bigger role? Then the Knights are getting in on the ground floor on a surprising breakout. We’ll see who’s right.
Up Next