Can Brayden McNabb Continue To Age Gracefully?
Credit: Jessica Alcheh-Imagn Images
Nothing about Brayden McNabb is graceful. He’s not a great skater and he doesn’t have the slickest hands. From Day 1, the Vegas Golden Knights have used him to handle their dirty work. If they need someone to stand in front of a slap shot, box a forward out by the net, or lay a big hit on someone, McNabb’s the first person on speed dial, and has been for every Knights coach.
Brayden McNabb trucks Valeri Nichushkin. Monster hit. pic.twitter.com/ztdCqcSKwN
— Brady Trettenero (@BradyTrett) June 11, 2021
Which makes it a bit surprising that he is graceful in one area: aging. The 33-year-old defenseman has a goal and an assist through 18 games, but his start is as hot as anyone on the Knights. So far this season, Vegas has out-scored their opponents at 5-on-5 by a 17-8 margin when McNabb is on the ice. Of the NHL’s 182 defensemen who’ve played more than 150 5-on-5 minutes, his 68.0% goal share ranks 13th.
There’s a term for a player who can do that for 19 minutes per night: a top-four-caliber defenseman. Vegas knew what they had, and he’s had the complete trust of every Knights regime, so on Friday, they locked him down to a three-year extension that carries a $3.65 million cap hit. The new contract kicks in next season.
Bruce Cassidy on Brayden McNabb after news of his three year contract extension became official this morning,
“He’s made his partners better. Everybody he plays with.” #VegasBorn pic.twitter.com/hBWIVyf4GV
— Pro Hockey West Report (@ProHockey_WEST) November 15, 2024
Vegas’ philosophy has largely been, Win Now, Worry Later, so through that lens, the Knights have a solid deal here. According to Evolving-Hockey’s contract projections, McNabb would likely have gotten a three-year deal on the open market worth around $3.73 million, so the price is bang-on. If McNabb continues to be his rugged and effective self, this is a good deal.
But the worry with any 33-year-old is: how long will it last? McNabb’s birthday is in January, meaning by the end of his contract, he’ll be 37, and that’s a looooooong way from a hockey player’s peak.
While McNabb arguably has “old man skills,” meaning he relies on his brawn and his brain more than his legs and reaction time, he’s already one of the slowest skaters in the NHL. This season, he’s only topped out at 19.4 miles per hour, putting him on the extreme low end. He might not have far to fall, but losing even a small bit of speed would make it much harder to defend an ever-quickening group of NHL forwards.
Generally speaking, the archetype of “stay-at-home defenseman” doesn’t age well. The defensemen who stick around the longest tend to be former offensive stars who’ve fallen back on their defensive game once their skills started to fade. Think your Zdeno Charas or Mark Giordanos. When defense is, and always has been, your calling card, there’s nothing left to fall back on when Father Time catches up with you.
There’s also the fact that playing McNabb’s style simply takes an outsized toll on a player. Of all defensemen who’ve entered the league since 2007, McNabb is ninth in hits (1,821), 29th in hits taken (1,267), and 18th in blocked shots (1,395). We’re talking about something like 4,500 impacts on his body throughout his career — and that doesn’t count things like cross-checks in front of the net.
Those miles add up, and it’s why, say, the best defensive defenseman of the last two decades, Niklas Hjalmarsson, didn’t make it to his age-35 season in the NHL, let alone 37. Even among the greats, for every Chara or Giordano, there’s also a Shea Weber, who breaks down physically, or a Ryan Suter, who finishes his career a mere shadow of himself.
But hey, that’s the risk/reward of the game, and the downsides aren’t that bad. If McNabb fades into seventh-defenseman territory, the Knights are equipped to handle it by expanding Nic Hague‘s role, or someone similar. If the salary cap rises to $92.5 million or so next season, McNabb’s cap hit will only be something like 4.0%. It’s not negligible, but it’s not going to sink a team either.
Those are some tricky dice to roll, but the important thing is that Vegas is more than willing to do it. McCrimmon’s proven to deserve the benefit of the doubt, and if he’s willing to re-up an aging player instead of moving on, you know he really has to like them. It might be a win-now move, but that’s where Vegas has always been. Enjoy the ride.
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