Tua Has Everything To Gain
Photo Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
The effects of an NFL season are wide ranging. Successes and failures can dictate livelihoods and paths. Results and performances carry a weight to so many people both on and off the field around the league. Yet, it’s difficult to imagine someone who will be more severely impacted by the 2023 season, positively or not, than Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
This is nothing new to Tua. After 2021 many believe he just didn’t have what it took to become a true franchise quarterback. Rumors of Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson — with the latter, in particular, the team dodged a bullet – swirled but ultimately provided no change. Tua promptly went out, with a new head coach by his side, played well when healthy and earned his opportunity for this season.
After 2022, Tagovailoa had his fifth-year option picked up guaranteeing $23.17 million in salary for next season. Considering how the quarterback market has shaken up, this year might be the difference between playing under the option or securing a record-breaking contract in the off-season.
The Market
In terms of practical guarantees, no one comes close to Watson, who became a de-facto free agent when the Houston Texans agreed to trade him last year and got a fully-guaranteed $230 million deal from the Cleveland Browns. This is a complete outlier, though, and everyone has treated it as such.
Beyond that, Joe Burrow has signed the biggest contract in NFL history. The Cincinnati Bengals gave Burrow a five-year contract averaging $55 million per season with $146.5 million in guarantees at signing and $219 million in practical guarantees. Justin Herbert also got a similar deal from the Los Angeles Chargers, with $218 million in practical guarantees, even though his average per year is a little lower, at $52.5 million.
Performance
Burrow, Herbert, and Tagovailoa are from the same draft class, but they have totally different trajectories in the league. The two first ones were starters from the get go, and (especially Herbert) played at a really high level since 2020. Tagovailoa was a backup to Ryan Fitzpatrick as a rookie and went in and out of the lineup. The second season wasn’t that good either. Tua started to shine in his third season, last year, and for the first two games of 2023, it seems like he will keep that up.
Updated QB efficiency and grading through Week 2, including MNF
– Pickett and Watson didn't do themselves any favors last night
– Young still has the lowest PFF grade pic.twitter.com/L8MfCiVkSN— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) September 19, 2023
EPA+CPOE composite since 2020 (among QBs with 500+ plays)
- Joe Burrow
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Justin Herbert
EPA+CPOE composite since 2022 (among QBs with 200+ plays)
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Joe Burrow
- Justin Herbert
Numbers show, even though Herbert had a better start, they are pretty similar in terms of production. And since last year, Tagovailoa has been better than both Burrow and Herbert in EPA/play + CPOE composite. The Dolphins certainly have the best playcaller among these three teams, but all of them have excellent receiving weapons and questionable protection from the offensive line.
By and large, coach Mike McDaniel and wide receiver Tyreek Hill are credited with Tua’s improvement. But, for the playcaller, the quarterback’s ability and willingness to master the offensive system were a huge component of the equation.
“It’s been really cool in a year’s time, how he’s not only learned the language (of the offense) but is now fluent in it,” McDaniel said back in the offseason. “That opens quarterbacks up to doing some of the components of the job – it’s really hard to try to be the leader of an offense and motivate guys and encourage guys when you need to or maybe be hard on guys when you need to, when you’re just trying to spit out a play and know your own assignment.”
The Dolphins know Tagovailoa’s contract extension talks will need to ramp up eventually. But in August general manager Chris Grier said they have to let things play out and take care of themselves with the quarterback’s performance on the field dictating his market.
“I just think for him, it’s just letting Tua play,” Grier stressed. “Again, those things can be a big distraction. You have family, friends, you guys, everyone constantly asking about it. His agents and I have had discussions, just general but not really about that. We just kind of agreed let’s just let him play out the season and then we’ll attack that in the offseason.”
If Tua gets injured again or sees his performance decline, the Dolphins would probably opt to let his contract run out to get more information and production out of his rookie deal. But if the quarterback keeps playing as well as he has, Miami will be more than comfortable to give him a long-term extension.
It’s a $200 million season for Tua, and he seems to be ready for it.
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