Two Ways To Look At Miami’s Turnover Problem
Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel talks with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) during the first half of an NFL game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Nov. 19, 2023.
The Miami Dolphins entered Sunday’s game with the Las Vegas Raiders with a -4 turnover differential. They stayed at that number, after their win, and now sit 5th worst in the league, leading only the Patriots, Falcons, Raiders, and Bears.
Not great company.
It would seem unlikely to succeed in the NFL while failing at the league’s most important statistical category, yet the Dolphins are 7-3 with a clear path to a divisional title and the potential to achieve one of the top seeds in their conference. They are 4-1 when losing the turnover battle. Staggeringly the rest of the league sits at 31-85 when they do the same.
So how do we process this information? We’ll, you can essentially look at it one of two ways.
One, they are pretenders.
Much like the Minnesota Vikings last season, this is a team on pace for a stellar regular season record and an early playoff exit. Unfortunately, poor performances in important games against skilled opponents would seem to support this theory.
Strong defensive fronts have acted as Tua Tagovailoa’s kryptonite forcing him to struggle through his progressions and make mistakes. Unfortunately, the play-off picture in the AFC is filled with strong defensive fronts. The Ravens, Browns, Steelers, and Chiefs all have stellar units that can use the blueprint the Bills put on tape in their win over Miami. Buffalo showed that disguising the middle of the field with their back seven and forcing Tua to progress through his reads while getting pressure in his face seems could be an easy recipe for Miami mistakes.
Additionally it’s easy to escape a middling team team with a rookie or low level quarterback who makes mistakes of his own when you’re giving the ball up, but hoping Patrick Mahomes will do the same is a fool’s errand. And ultimately the AFC goes through Kansas City.
But then there’s option number two. The turnover trend is a false flag.
The differential may just simply not be requisite of who this team will be as all the pieces come together. Perhaps it’s actually even more evidence of the team’s potential? They spent a lot of their year without the premier turnover creator on their roster, Jalen Ramsey. But now Ramsey’s return has lifted the secondary and Vic Fangio’s defense. With that lift could come not just better performances, but a bump in turnovers created.
In his first three games back, Ramsey has 3 interceptions while only being targeted 13 times! Additionally the improved coverage of the healthy secondary can work in conjunction with the front seven to pressure opposing quarterbacks into mistakes at a higher rate than they were capable of doing earlier in the year.
Not only has the defense held their last three opponents to 17,14, and 13 points respectively but in the last two against the Chiefs and Raiders, with their full starting defensive backfield playing every snap, the defense is allowing just 4.9 yards per play on average. Extrapolated over the entire season, that would put them sixth in the league. Stingy defenses force turnovers and Fangio’s bunch is getting stingy.
The more crucial issue though, to option 2 being true, might be reducing the turnovers on offense. And Tua Tagavoila knows it. “We’ll be a better offense when I stop turning the ball over,” Tua said after throwing a pick and giving away a fumble on Sunday.
And although the above information about the Bills and strong defensive fronts is true, Mike McDaniel is not only an offensive genius but a master of the self scout. Coming out of the bye week McDaniels could very likely turn the tables on the team’s offensive narrative. There’s a world where the Dolphins start to put the offense in a position to be not just flashy, but successful in the turnover battle.
Ultimately, only time will tell how the Dolphins current ranking in turnover differential affects their season’s potential. If I were a betting man though, I would bet on an extremely skilled roster that’s finally getting healthy and it’s talented coaching staff to figure it out.
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