The Two Factors Leading To Dolphins Hesitance To Extend Tua Tagovaioa
Nov 5, 2023; Frankfurt, Germany; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) throws the ball under pressure from Kansas City Chiefs defensive end George Karlaftis (56) in the second half during an NFL International Series game at Deutsche Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Later2023 should have been the year the Miami Dolphins won the AFC East. The New England Patriots fell off the map while the New York Jets lost Aaron Rodgers after just four snaps. To top it off, the Buffalo Bills struggled to stay on track all year.
Despite the rest of the East struggling, Miami was unable to take advantage. Had they pulled out just one win in the final two weeks of the season, they would have been able to close the deal, but losses to the Baltimore Ravens (56-19) and Bills (21-14) led to their drop from the No. 3 seed to No. 6. They then fell short against the Kansas City Chiefs by a score of 26-7.
Fair or not, the blame for most of these losses — as well as the 21-14 defeat by Kansas City in Week 9 — often falls on the shoulders of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The fifth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft has put up some impressive numbers throughout his career. He had a completion percentage of 69.29 this past year while throwing for 4,624 yards with 29 touchdowns and 14 picks.
However, he stumbles when going against the best teams in the AFC. This may be why Miami has been hesitant to pay him as he enters the fifth and final year of his rookie deal. Over the past several years, the Chiefs and Bills have been the teams to watch in the conference and Tua has struggled mightily against them. Let’s take a look at how he’s fared against each opponent.
Tua Tagovailoa vs. Kansas City
When it comes to pure numbers, Tagovailoa hasn’t been awful against the Chiefs but it’s also aided by a 33-27 loss during his rookie campaign. In that game, Tua had 316 yards and two touchdown passes. He didn’t meet them again until 2023, which went much worse.
In Week 9, the Dolphins managed just 14 points while Tua threw for 193 yards with a touchdown and a fumble. During the the Wild Card round, he had 199 yards with a touchdown and a pick and the offense managed just seven points. In those three games, Tagovailoa was sacked a total of nine times.
What matters most is winning and while that shouldn’t be a quarterback stat, we all know who gets the credit and the blame. That’s why the 0-3 mark against Kansas City is a reason for the Dolphins to be hesitant to extend the Alabama product.
Tua Tagovailoa vs. Buffalo
More concerning than the three games against Kansas City are the problems Tua has had with Buffalo. The AFC East rival is now 6-1 against Miami when Tagovailoa starts. That includes the two losses this past season. In seven games, Tua has six touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Until he learns to beat the best team in the division, and the best team in the conference, it’s going to be hard for Miami to justify paying him more than $50 million per season — which is the going rate now for starting quarterbacks thanks to the Detroit Lions and their deal with Jared Goff.
Tua Tagovailoa’s injury history is another factor
Beyond his struggles with the two juggernauts in the AFC, the Miami quarterback has contended with injuries dating back to his days with the Crimson Tide. A hip issue caused concern when he was entering the league but then concussions became a larger problem.
Tagovailoa missed 15 games through his first three seasons and had one of the more frightening concussions seen in an NFL game. In September of 2022, Tua was carted off the field following a hard hit against the Cincinnati Bengals. He was on the ground for more than seven minutes and at one point his hands were frozen in front of his face as he seemed to lose control of them.
The NFL took a lot of criticism for allowing him to play after suffering a concussion in a game against Buffalo less than a week prior. In that one, he was seen stumbling after a hit and there was justified outrage he was on the field against Cincinnati so quickly.
Tagovailoa did play in all 17 games this past season and nothing would be better than to see him remain healthy. No one wants to see players suffer any injuries, especially when it comes to anything surrounding the brain.
Having said that, Miami will be hesitant to pay as long as there are concerns there — and they’re even more apt to wait with the struggles to upend the two previously mentioned teams.
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