The Ground Game Will Be Crucial In Buffalo
Photo Credit: Jim Rassol via USA TODAY Sports
First in scoring, EPA/play, success rate, DVOA. The Miami Dolphins offense has been impeccable over the opening three weeks of the season. However, next Sunday’s game against the Buffalo Bills represents the biggest challenge so far, and on multiple levels. Among the toughest is the running game.
After a stellar performance from running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane versus the Denver Broncos, the level of difficulty increases substantially. The importance of the game against a divisional rival does, too.
The bad news is that last year the Dolphins failed to run effectively against the Bills in two of their three games. In September, Miami got just 32 rushing yards from running backs (2.3 yards per carry) on a 21-19 win. The leading rusher was Chase Edmonds, with mere 3.5 yards per carry. In the playoffs, with Skylar Thompson at quarterback, more problems were expected against loaded boxes, and they came. The Dolphins had just 1.7 yards per carry from running backs, 2.1 yards per carry all around, and Jeff Wilson was the leading rusher with just 23 yards in 10 attempts. The only game in which the Dolphins were able to run efficiently was in December, the second regular season matchup between the AFC East rivals, when Mostert ran for 136 yards, and the team totaled 188 rushing yards (7.52 per carry).
But there are several pieces of good news as well. The first is how much better the Dolphins running game has been this year, which received praise from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
“We’ve got our run game going,” Tua said after the historic performance last Sunday. “We had our deal with our pass game, our action game. I’m very proud of the guys and the way they came out.”
The run blocking and the scheme have developed, and head coach Mike McDaniel has a lot of merits. Take a look at the opposing linebackers. They are in a blender, and it’s beyond difficult to stop it.
EVERYBODY DO SOMETHING pic.twitter.com/ysQvIl66fx
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 27, 2023
We are used to playcallers praised because they are creative designers, but nobody in the NFL currently has McDaniel’s level of creativity in the run game. The way he designs blocks and motions is impressive.
Moreover, the running backs themselves are perfect fits for what McDaniel wants to run. Achane and Mostert combined for eight total touchdowns and 375 scrimmage yards. They became the second pair of teammates in NFL history to each score four touchdowns in the same game. And when the Dolphins weren’t able to run efficiently last year, Mostert was hurt and Achane was still in college. The difference is real.
More good news for the Dolphins are on the other side. Even though the Bills have a very well coached and talented defense, they haven’t been as good as they were last year against the run. In 2022, Sean McDermott‘s unit was fifth in EPA per rush and 16th in success rate. Over three weeks this season, they’ve been 13th in EPA per rush and 19th in success rate. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier is out, and the Bills didn’t replace him — McDermott is the head coach and accumulated playcalling duties. The Bills have been much better against the pass — 2nd in EPA per dropback and 9th in success rate — than on the ground.
So far, Buffalo has given up 4.7 yards after contact per rush attempt, most in the league. The Denver Broncos are second with 3.4 yards after contact per rush even after playing Miami. Now imagine that against what the Dolphins have done.
Starting running back Mostert has been particularly important for Miami. He leads the NFL in missed tackles forced per touch (0.47) among players with at least 35 touches. That means he’s creating more than what the system and the offensive line give him.
This game is huge for both the Dolphins and the Bills. The winner will lead the AFC East, and both teams are first and second in DVOA. It matters because of the standings and the schedule, but there is also a mental component. Since Tom Brady left the division after the 2019 season, the Bills have dominated the East. Now, especially after Aaron Rodgers‘ season-ending injury, these two teams will fight for it. And possibly for the first time since 2008, maybe even longer, the Dolphins are in a real position to make noise.
Everybody talks about Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle, and they are in fact the most important aspect of the team. But the running game should be prevalent too, and the comparison with last year’s results may be the difference to supersede the Bills — on Sunday and for the entire season.
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