The Effect Of A Healthy Secondary
Oct 8, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; New York Giants tight end Darren Waller (12) reaches for the football but cannot make a catch against Miami Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard (25) during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
The Miami Dolphins will travel all the way to Germany to face one of their biggest challenges of the season on Sunday. The showdown against the Kansas City Chiefs is huge for several reasons, including the opportunity to remain in first place in the AFC East — potentially in the entire conference. It’s a matchup with massive playoff implications, and, moreover, it’s Miami’s best chance to show that they can not only put up video game numbers against poor level teams, they can win games against top teams.
The expectations for the offense are obvious, based on the first half of the season. But the defense has to excel as well, or at the very least improve over their performances against the Buffalo Bills and the Philadelphia Eagles.
There’s good reason to think that’s possible now that their secondary is finally getting healthy. Jalen Ramsey came back last week after missing the first seven games of the season because of a knee injury, and Xavien Howard is expected to play after he missed the last two games with a groin issue.
But it’s not only the cornerbacks. Safety Jevon Holland, who missed last week’s game because of a concussion, cleared protocol. Holland has been the most consistent player on the Dolphins’ defense this season.
Vic Fangio on the Dolphins getting S Jevon Holland back after missing last week's game:
"It's big. Jevon's the quarterback of the secondary, beyond being a great player himself. It's big having him back."
— Marcel Louis-Jacques (@Marcel_LJ) November 2, 2023
The Chiefs’ offense doesn’t seem as scary as it once did. Even so, they are still fifth in offensive DVOA — and that tells you everything you need to know about Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Andy Reid. Having the entire secondary healthy is particularly important in stopping Kelce, because it allows Fangio to use Ramsey to cover the tight end. The impact Ramsey brings to the unit goes beyond X’s and O’s. The cornerback became a leader right away, and the way he handled his injury earned him a lot of respect in the locker room.
“You want to talk about something that goes above and beyond, like you can’t manufacture what he brought to our team in any other way,” head coach Mike McDaniel said after the win over the New England Patriots. “His play, but the commitment it took to play in that game, everybody witnessed firsthand. You want to talk about not wanting to let someone down as a teammate, that was a special thing to be a part of, to watch his journey.”
Limiting Mahomes is always a challenge, but Fangio’s two-high scheme is as good of an answer as there is trying to do so.
Vic Fangio on defending Patrick Mahomes: "Try and hopefully limit the improvised plays, making good throws on the run. He's really tough — you've got to defend the play they call in the huddle and then you've got to defend the play he calls when things break down."
— Marcel Louis-Jacques (@Marcel_LJ) November 2, 2023
Fangio has plenty of experience structuring defenses to face Patrick Mahomes. But, like the rest of the NFL, he has failed to stop the star quarterback. Fangio was the Denver Broncos’ head coach for three seasons, and they lost all six games they played against the Chiefs. Kansas City scored an average of 28 points in these games against Fangio’s innovative, influential defense. Certainly 28 points sounds like a lot — it is! — though it could be enough if the Dolphins’ offense keeps the pace they are on this season.
The Miami defense is still below average; they rank 22nd in DVOA. However, they are improving game by game, and the impact Fangio has had on the unit is undeniable. Taking into consideration the entire season, the Dolphins are 20th in EPA/play and 27th in success rate on defense. But over the last three weeks, they have improved to 10th in EPA/play and sixth in success rate. And that all while battling through injuries throughout the secondary and missing important players in every game.
That’s what good, experienced coaching can do. The Dolphins didn’t need to have a great defense right away — and maybe not at all. If Fangio can improve his unit to the sweet side of average, a truly special offense designed by Mike McDaniel has the potential to take this team to the top of the AFC. A fully healthy secondary makes that scenario much more plausible.
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