Miami Needs To Embrace The Inevitable Slugfest At Arrowhead Stadium
Syndication: USA TODAY
The Miami Dolphins are set to face off against the Kansas City Chiefs in this Saturday’s Wild Card matchup. The headliners in this game are quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa, both of whom are polarizing players at the most important position in football.
Mahomes is arguably the best quarterback in the league, and he’s unarguably the centerpiece of the Chiefs’ dynasty. Meanwhile, Tagovailoa has been playing at a borderline MVP level for a majority of the season, but there’s genuine concern as to whether or not he can find success in the postseason. In many ways, this matchup feels like David vs. Goliath. Tua has only appeared in one playoff game in his career, while his counterpart will be playing in his 15th playoff game in just his sixth year as a starter.
Even though those two guys will be under a hot spotlight this weekend, I believe the most important players heading into this game are the running backs. The Dolphins and Chiefs both feature explosive backs who will be heavily relied upon in this game. The Dolphins will turn towards the duo of Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane, while Isiah Pacheco will lead a Chiefs backfield that also includes Clyde Edwards-Helaire and La’Mical Perine. Notably missing is Jerick McKinnon, who was placed on injured reserve in late December and recently underwent season-ending surgery.
For those wondering why the Chiefs are likely to rely on Pacheco when they have an elite quarterback in Mahomes, allow me to explain.
The Chiefs’ biggest weakness this season has been their wide receiver room. Sure, they have tight end Travis Kelce, who essentially acts as their No. 1 receiving option. But aside from Kelce, Kansas City’s pass catchers leave a lot to be desired. To begin the season, the Chiefs listed Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore as the three starting receivers. Since then, Moore has been placed on injured reserve and replaced by rookie Rashee Rice, while Toney and Valdes-Scantling have failed to provide consistent production.
This is great news for the Dolphins, who have one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL in Jalen Ramsey leading the defense alongside Eli Apple, who is filling in for the injured Xavien Howard. Granted, Apple is one of the easiest guys to make fun of in the league considering that he talks shit more than anybody even if he can’t always back it up. After he got Mossed by Cooper Kupp in the end zone in the Cincinnati Bengals’ Super Bowl loss to the Los Angeles Rams, the mockery got so bad his own mother deactivated her Twitter account. Yet despite all of that, he’s still a pretty serviceable cornerback with playoff experience. Ramsey and Apple will also have two great safeties in Jevon Holland and DeShon Elliott to help them.
It’s safe to say that the Dolphins’ secondary completely over-matches the Chiefs’ wide receiver room, which means Kansas City may need to pivot off of their pass-happy offense that ranks second in the league in pass attempts per game. One solution is to run more 12-personnel on offense. The Chiefs currently run 12 personnel on 20% of their plays, which is slightly below the league average at 21%. I expect that number to significantly increase on Saturday, in large part due to the weather.
The current forecast for Saturday’s game at kickoff is two degrees Fahrenheit, with winds at 14 mph and gusts of up to 28 mph. Accuweather’s RealFeel estimates that it will feel like -19 degrees at kickoff. Keep in mind, kickoff isn’t until 7 p.m. Central, so this will be a night game with below-zero temperatures when you factor in the wind chill. When it’s that cold outside, the air is thicker and the football naturally deflates by up to 20% throughout the course of a three-hour game. In layman’s terms, this means it will be much harder to throw and kick — and that’s not even factoring in the 14 mph winds!
Even if weather conditions were favorable for throwing the football, the Dolphins would still be relying on Mostert and Achane. Make no mistake, Tua struggled in last week’s loss to the Buffalo Bills, throwing a pair of interceptions. It’s in Mike McDaniel’s best interest to let Tagovailoa focus more on managing the game and protecting the football rather than playing hero ball. He can do that by establishing the run and getting Tua in rhythm with quick passes to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
I think the combination of Miami’s secondary going up against a weakened Chiefs WR corps, coupled with the weather forecast, negatively impacts Kansas City more than it does Miami. Sure, the Dolphins aren’t used to playing in high-stakes, cold-weather games on the road, and that will most certainly be a challenge. However, Miami won’t need to shift their offensive philosophy as much as the Chiefs will.
Miami must embrace the fact that they’re playing a cold-weather game and really turn this into an old-fashioned slugfest. The Dolphins stand a much better chance of beating the Chiefs when Mahomes isn’t able to dominate in a pass-first offense like he’s grown accustomed to. This game may be played at Arrowhead Stadium in a sea of Swifties and red jerseys, but the style of play will be in Miami’s domain.
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