Miami Must Stop The Run And Prevent A Slugfest
Nov 2, 2023; Frankfurt, Germany; Miami Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio during practice at the PSD Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
The Miami Dolphins grade out as an elite team in a lot of different metrics. Obviously, they have an elite offense headlined by Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle that ranks second in the league in offensive DVOA. The Dolphins also allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards in the league heading into Week 13’s matchup against the Washington Commanders.
Yet, the Commanders were able to run the ball effectively against Miami last week. Brian Robinson Jr. was averaging 7.3 yards per attempt on just seven carries for 53 yards before he ruled out for the second half with a hamstring injury. Antonio Gibson and Chris Rodriguez Jr. combined for 64 rushing yards, as the Commanders rushed for a total of 138 yards against the Dolphins’ typically solid run defense.
Miami needs to rectify last week’s leaky run defense ahead of their Monday Night Football game against the Tennessee Titans. The Titans are built to run the football, and they’ve got a great one-two punch with Derrick Henry, the hardest running back to tackle in the league, and rookie running back Tyjae Spears. Spears was dominant in the preseason, leading all rushers with 4.73 yards after contact per rush and 5.3 yards per carry. He’s is also coming off his best regular-season performance where he rushed for 75 yards on 16 carries in the Titans’ 31-28 loss to the Indianapolis Colts.
Miami cannot allow Tennessee to play hard-nosed ball-control football, because that is the Titans’ only path to victory. The Titans’ secondary has struggled throughout the season, ranking 22nd in pass yards allowed per game. They don’t have a cornerback on their roster who is capable of stopping Tyreek Hill — although, granted, most teams don’t. Tennessee also traded safety Kevin Byard to the Philadelphia Eagles, which makes their secondary even weaker than before.
However, what the Titans can do is exploit a Dolphins run defense that struggled last week by getting Henry and Spears heavily involved in the offense. If Tennessee is able to run the ball efficiently, then they’ll have an easier time controlling time of possession. The best way for the Titans to stop Hill is to hardly have him on the field to begin with. The Titans may have a bad record, but they are not a cupcake opponent. Tennessee can make things interesting if they’re able to turn this game into a slugfest.
Miami will be especially vulnerable against the run without Jerome Baker, who is their best run stopper at inside linebacker. In his place, Duke Riley played well in a limited sample size last week, but Riley is a career special teamer who has consistently graded poorly as a tackler.
In Riley’s six-year career, he has an average PFF tackling grade of 44.2. His highest-graded season as a tackler was last year with the Dolphins, and even then it was only 53.6. At his best, Riley is a serviceable backup linebacker, but at his worst, he’s a third-stringer. Expecting him to be a consistent tackler against an absolute behemoth like Derrick Henry is a disaster waiting to happen, and I expect the Titans will try to exploit Riley both in coverage and against the run.
Will Levis is the biggest wild card in this game, because he’s got a strong arm and the unjustified confidence to make a stupidly aggressive play. Most of the time it doesn’t work out for him, but on occasion it does. In his first start against the Atlanta Falcons, Levis threw for 238 yards and four touchdowns. Since then he has cooled off a bit, but the moxie and big-play ability is still there. The best thing the Dolphins can do is establish an early lead and force the rookie quarterback to make poor decisions. However, If the Dolphins’ run defense continues to be an issue, then it’ll make Levis less prone to turning the ball over because he’ll be aided by an efficient running game and he won’t be asked to do as much.
This is why it’s imperative that the Dolphins fix last week’s shoddy run defense to avoid a low-scoring slugfest against a team like the Titans that are built to win those types of games. Tennessee may be a 4-8 squad that has lost all hope for making the playoffs, but Mike Vrabel is one of those coaches who will always field a competitive team, regardless of the talent level on the roster. The Dolphins should win this game, so long as they prevent the Titans from staying true to their identity of running the entire offense through Derrick Henry.
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