Miami Is In Desperate Need Of Substance
Nov 5, 2023; Frankfurt, Germany, ; Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) holds off Kansas City Chiefs safety Justin Reid (20) in the fourth quarter during an NFL International Series game at Deutsche Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
In 2019 the Minnesota Twins set the all time MLB record for home runs in a regular season with 307 and earned a cute little nickname, The Bomba Squad. They also won 101 games that year, finishing one win short of their all time regular season win record.
Then, in the postseason, they were swept 3-0. Relying on the long ball was great for regular season success, but led them to winning 0 postseason games.
So why am I talking about baseball in a Miami Dolphins article?
In the NFL, big plays are home runs and there is now enough film on the 2023 Miami Dolphins to be concerned that they may be the football version of the 2019 Minnesota Twins. Fun regular season full of big plays, only to flame out in the postseason, where substance, not flash is required for success.
How many times have we seen great playoff games conclude with a long methodical drive to score at the end of a game? Or seen a great offense in a big moment get a couple of first downs in a row to run the clock out for a big win? Seemingly every year, teams with postseason success have to come up with a couple of those drives. The 2023 Miami Dolphins have yet to prove that they are built for those playoff game winning moments.
McDaniel’s group is undeniably built for putting up lots of points against bad teams. In their 6 wins this year, all coming against teams with losing records, they have scored under 31 points just once and that was against a well coached, at least defensively well coached, Patriots team on the road. Conversely they are 0-3 against good teams with winning records and Super Bowl aspirations. In those games they haven’t hit the 21 point mark once. The big plays vanished and the offense hasn’t shown the ability to methodically move down the field 5-7 yards at a time when forced to do so.
This has never been more evident than in the game against the reigning Super Bowl champs in Germany. The Dolphins somehow found themselves down just one score with 2:27 to play. On that drive they ran 6 plays. Here are the yardage totals of those 6 plays; 25,19,0,0,0,-13. Four plays that went nowhere or worse and two plays of over 10 yards.
On the two drives where they actually scored points against the Chiefs one culminated in a 31 yard pass and the other a 13 yard run.
Against the Eagles, in their lone touchdown drive, they had plays of 29, 15, and 27 yards. Three big plays were needed for them to score their only offensive touchdown against last year’s Super Bowl runner ups. In the other 7 drives they had against the Eagles that netted just 3 points; they had 6 total plays of 15 yards or more. It’s worth noting that the drive where they kicked that field goal, they started on the Eagles 23 yard line and kicked the field goal from the 22, so those points were much more about field position than a high functioning offense.
After 9 weeks of the season they have 38 rushes over 10 yards and 20 passes over 25 yards to lead the league in big plays, but the methodical drives are rare at best. Their 3rd down conversion percentage this year has been 39 percent, which is 17th in the league, one spot behind the Panthers. But against the three good teams they have played, that percentage drops to 30 percent, which is good enough for 31st.
It’s also worth noting that the three teams who beat them this year don’t put up big plays at the same rate as the Dolphins, but they move the ball much more efficiently. In fact Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Kansas City are first, second, and fifth in 3rd down conversion percentage respectively.
In the regular season you can rack up enough wins playing the way Miami is to make the playoffs. If you are a betting person, by all means bet money on the Dolphins to make the playoffs. But when the playoffs come around, unless McDaniel and his staff can figure out a way to keep the offense on the field in a more reliable manner, don’t expect this team to have the sort of deep success that fans are craving. The next step in the evolution of the current Dolphins needs to be one of a little less flash and a lot more substance.
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