Miami Is Putting Their Money On Continuity Fixing Flaws
Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
After decades of searching for the right duo, the Miami Dolphins finally have their best head coach/quarterback combo since the days of Don Shula and Dan Marino. Tua Tagovailoa‘s status was, by far, the biggest talker in the Dolphins universe this offseason. Despite it dragging out, the team put an end to those “will they or won’t they” conversations back in July. Then Friday saw McDaniel ink his own extension, which locks him into South Beach through 2028. It’s the same term as his franchise quarterback, putting their fates in lockstep with each other.
If you’re Miami, you have to do this. Tua might not be that Patrick Mahomes/Joe Burrow-type QB, but you’re not getting anything better by starting over. And the Dolphins definitely aren’t getting a better coach than McDaniel, whose reputation as one of the league’s premier play-callers is well-earned.
But those four years aren’t just a victory lap, especially not with Miami still looking for their first playoff win since before 9/11. They’re a window for each of them to resolve their biggest weaknesses. Moving on from either of them might present a much greater risk than keeping them, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t risks in having McDaniel and Tua in the fold for the foreseeable future.
For McDaniel, fair or not, he has a reputation for not being able to beat top teams. Maybe it’s unfair, but going 1-6 against above-.500 teams (including playoffs) in 2023, and 5-13 overall isn’t going to shake that criticism.
There’s also the narrative that as great as McDaniel is at scheming for the run game, he abandons it in the most crucial times. He winds up putting everything on Tua’s shoulders instead of sticking to his bread-and-butter.
There’s no denying Tagovailoa’s strengths (which we’ll get to in a bit), and relying on the incredible 1-2 punch of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle out wide isn’t a terrible idea in a vacuum. But look at what the tandem of Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane were able to do last season. This offseason saw them double down on their backfield by drafting Jaylen Wright — a 1,000-yard rusher with a 4.38 40 — in the fourth round.
McDaniel needs to trust that group to keep moving the chains and breaking off explosive plays, especially when they find themselves down in games against great teams. As great as his aerial attack is, it can’t overcome allowing the defense to sell out against the pass.
Meanwhile, Tua getting superstar money will mean heaping superstar expectations onto him. He’ll have to overcome his biggest weakness — his reliability when he has to progress past his second read.
Tua’s tried dismissing the flaws of himself and his offense, and fair enough. But as much as he tried downplaying the potentially-shaky offensive line, saying, “Brother, I get the ball out so fast, so I am confident with anybody we’ve got up there,” there are times when he won’t get the ball out fast. And then what?
When Tua makes two reads or fewer and gets a pass out within 2.5 seconds, there’s arguably no one better in the NFL. He led all quarterbacks in PFF passing grade (87.4) within that time frame. If Hill is open, or if he sees Waddle with some space, that’s where Tua shines. Luckily, that happens a lot.
But “a lot” isn’t “always,” especially against the toughest teams, and especially in the playoffs. When Tua has to wait longer than 2.5 seconds to throw, when defenses disguise their coverage and get pressure in his face, when he has to progress deep into his reads, that’s when he ceases being elite.
Look at the top names on the list of the best passers after 2.5 seconds, and there’s two-time MVP Lamar Jackson in first, Super Bowl LVI Champion Matthew Stafford tied for second, and last year’s NFC Champion QB Brock Purdy in fourth. We don’t want to downplay how important it is to be great when things are on time — and Tua does that. But the results when he has to keep the play alive need to get better.
The good news is four years together gives McDaniel and Tagovailoa a long time to work out their kinks respective flaws. McDaniel has more time to fix his run-pass splits to take some pressure off his quarterback. Meanwhile, Tua has the opportunity to prove he can advance in his progressions with Jonnu Smith, Malik Washington, and Odell Beckham Jr. as his potential third, fourth, and fifth options in 2024.
If you have the right coach and right QB in place, you’ve got a chance in the NFL. The Dolphins believe they have both and put their money where their mouths are. They’re betting that finally getting their long-sought-after stability takes care of the rest.
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