Dolphins Keys To A Win Over Houston
Credit: Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images
One week after achieving Scorigami in an overtime win against the New York Jets, the Miami Dolphins are hoping to stay alive in the AFC playoff picture on Sunday with a matchup against the Houston Texans. Houston, on the other hand, can clinch the AFC South with a win over Miami and an Indianapolis Colts loss. The Texans are led by their high-flying passing offense of C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins, the latter of whom leads the NFL in receiving yards per game.
How can the Dolphins play spoiler and defeat the Texans in Houston?
Keep Taking Care Of the Ball, Tua
Tua Tagovailoa has done a supreme job at limiting turnovers since coming back from injury, throwing just one interception since Week 8. However, that streak will be put to the test against a Texans team that has accumulated a lot of picks, and not just the ones they received in the Deshaun Watson trade.
The Houston #Texans are 2nd in the NFL with 16 total Interceptions this season.
Here's a compilation of all 16#HtownMade pic.twitter.com/3a1OnfK74z
— シcal (@nestagraphics) December 11, 2024
Houston’s total of 16 interceptions is second to only the Minnesota Vikings for the most in the NFL, though five of them came in one game against (surprisingly enough) the Detroit Lions. Three players on the Texans (Calen Bullock, Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter) have at least three interceptions on the year, with Bullock leading the team with four.
But if Houston isn’t constantly giving Stroud the ball back, the Texans have been far from perfect on defense. The Texans have allowed a league-leading 26 touchdowns, including 19 touchdowns to wide receivers, and they’ve allowed at least 20 points on defense in all but two games (Week 2 vs. the Chicago Bears and Week 11 vs. the Cooper Rush-led Dallas Cowboys).
With Houston struggling against wide receivers this season and the Dolphins’ dynamic duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle beginning to hit their strides, Tua must lean on them to keep the offense moving. But he can only do that as long as he makes the most of his targets and keeps not turning the ball over.
Don’t Let Joe Mixon Beat Them
Joe Mixon has been a revelation for Houston since being traded from the Bengals. There are games in which Mixon has carried the entire Houston offense on his back, and much like the Dolphins with De’Von Achane, the Texans thrive when they let their prime running back cook. In games in which Mixon totals at least 132 all-purpose yards, the Texans are 4-0.
Joe Mixon currently has 887 rushing yards on the season. What does he finish with, with 4 games remaining? #HTownMade
— big ounce (@_bigounce) December 10, 2024
That said, the Dolphins have the ability to limit Mixon’s production. The Dolphins are one of the better teams in the NFL against the run, allowing a respectable 4.3 yards per carry all season and boasting the fifth-best PFF run defense grade in 2024 (75.7). When Mixon is held to fewer than 106 all-purpose yards, the Texans are just 1-3.
Unfortunately for Miami, the Dolphins have struggled against pass-catching backs in 2024, which is an area where Mixon excels. Anthony Weaver will need to pay extra attention to Mixon’s threat as a receiver out of the backfield.
Make Stroud’s Life Miserable
The Dolphins haven’t been too productive in the sack department, but a struggling Texans offensive line gives Miami a chance to improve on their total of 24 on the season. “The (Texans’) offensive line has allowed 143 pressures — including 26 sacks — on 520 pass plays this season, leading to a 24th-ranked PFF pass-blocking efficiency rating (83.7),” noted Zoltán Buday of Pro Football Focus this week. That’s an assignment that should have Chop Robinson licking his chops.
The good news for Miami is that their pass rush has steadily gotten better as the season has gone on. They’ve totaled three or four sacks in four out of their past five games. Zach Sieler (6.0 sacks, 33 pressures) and Calais Campbell (4.0 sacks, 31 pressures) are among the most dangerous pass-rushing tackle duos in the NFL.
Stroud has been sacked 41 times this season, which ranks second in the NFL. With Texans guard Juice Scruggs potentially slated to miss Week 15, it gives the Dolphins’ interior defensive line a further opportunity to exploit a weakness. Even if they don’t rack up the sacks in bunches, getting in Stroud’s face will lead to hurried passes and a rough day for the sophomore quarterback.
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