Maybe Raheem Mostert Is Enough
Photo Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Whenever a running back becomes available, the general reaction is to expect interest from the Miami Dolphins. It’s fair, after all, as the Dolphins made an offer when Dalvin Cook was a free agent and were one of two teams interested in trading for Indianapolis Colts disgruntled star Jonathan Taylor.
But do they really need another running back?
Taylor was an All-Pro player two years ago, so he could really add value to the team — but not for what the Colts were looking for. Besides him, it’s difficult to find a real improvement over Raheem Mostert. The 31-year-old running back is a perfect fit for Mike McDaniel’s offense, and his efficiency is staggering.
Raheem Mostert Appreciation Post ‼️🏎️ #FinsUp
– 18 CAR
– 121 YDS
– 6.7 YPC
– 2 TD pic.twitter.com/59xmmThnM7— Bobby Shouse (@B_Shousejr) September 18, 2023
Mostert was the fourth running back in yards over expected per carry between 2018 and 2022 among qualified runners, behind only Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, and Tony Pollard. He’s ahead of great players, such as Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry. Mostert has an explosive-run rate of 7.1% since 2017, also the fourth highest.
On Sunday, he was essential in the Dolphins’ win over the New England Patriots. He ran 18 times for 121 yards (6.7 yards per carry) and two touchdowns, plus one reception for six yards. He might not be a complete back, as his receiving ability is limited, but he is a true three-down runner. Only six running backs so far have played at least 70% of their teams snaps, and Mostert is one of them. The rate might decrease when Jeff Wilson comes back, but Mostert is the clear starter.
“Just watching the nuances of his game, he’s developed confidence, conviction, his vision is better, he’s more decisive,” Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel said. “As you guys could see last (Monday) night, and it was very evident at the end of the season last year, he is a hard tackle. Pound for pound he might be one of, if not the strongest person on the team.”
His ability to create more than what the offensive line gives him is a big factor. Through the first two weeks of this season, just four players have had more yards over expected: Breece Hall, McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, and Bijan Robinson. It’s a pretty good company.
Compared to the other running backs on the roster, Mostert looks better, with 5.6 yards per carry this season. Rookie De’Von Achane has just one carry, and it went for five yards. Veteran Salvon Ahmed has averaged 4.0 yards per run.
Raheem Mostert with a HUGE TD! pic.twitter.com/v01CeGH1Po
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) September 18, 2023
The Dolphins’ run game in general has been below average, and the team is just 23rd in EPA per rush, despite being first in EPA/play. But that’s mostly related to run blocking, and left tackle Terron Armstead will help improve that when he’s healthy. Great running backs matter, but it’s common knowledge at this point that efficient runs depend on several factors — system, offensive line, quarterback play, opposing defenses. Mostert is not exactly a star, but he’s a competent player who has excelled in his role.
Mostert has a unique path in the NFL. Undrafted in 2015, he signed with the Philadelphia Eagles and failed to make the 53-man roster. He was on the Eagles’ practice squad when the Dolphins signed him for the first time, still as a rookie. He played only one game for Miami, and only on special teams. He spent his first three NFL seasons as a special teamer, and had only seven rushing attempts between 2015 and 2017. Mostert started to play on offense more frequently in 2018 and became a real contributor for Kyle Shanahan and Mike McDaniel’s offense with the San Francisco 49ers in 2019 — the year in which he exploded during the NFC Championship Game against the Green Bay Packers.
Injuries prevented him from playing a bigger role in San Francisco, but the health concerns may be a little bit overrated. Last season, Mostert made 14 starts and played 16 of the Dolphins’ 17 games. It was his best season in terms of volume and total yards — he surpassed 1,000 scrimmage yards for the first time in his NFL career.
It’s unusual for a 31-year-old running back to be a bellcow. It’s even more unusual if he’s a mid-level free-agent signing. But McDaniel knows Mostert is unique, and that’s not a negative.
“I try to very much acknowledge when people live outside the curve,” McDaniel added. “I’d rather be the person that was like, ‘Yeah, see? I knew it.’ Because you just watch what he does on a daily basis and know how hungry he is and how much he wants to do what he does best, which is run the football.”
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