Making Sense Of McDaniel’s Running Back By “Hot Hand” Plan
Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
It’s hard to worry about the Miami Dolphins running game if you’re a fan. Regardless of who is getting touches on a given Sunday, be it Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane, Jaylen Wright, or even Jeff Wilson, Phins fans trust Mike McDaniel will keep things going smoothly.
No, this discussion is for the fantasy owners. Maybe you jumped the gun and drafted Achane after an 11-touchdown season where he averaged 7.8 yards per carry in the fourth round. Perhaps you waited a bit and landed Mostert, figuring he’ll still pick up points even if he can’t repeat 21 touchdowns. And if you got either, you sure as heck wanted to handcuff them with Wright.
Now you’re fretting over how touches will be split up, and McDaniel not only didn’t come through by telegraphing his Week 1 plans to fantasy owners everywhere, he threw a curveball we’re pretty sure we haven’t seen before.
“Each week just trying to get individuals opportunities and let those opportunities shape… how many touches they get in the course of a game,” explained McDaniel when asked how he’ll distribute the ball between his backs. “[Getting] everyone involved is important for me, and then letting the game take its course on whose competitive edge we’re going to lean on.”
Again, if you’re wearing teal-and-orange face paint this Sunday, that’s great to hear. Why force-feed a player who’s not feeling it? If someone is popping off, ride that player. That’s not so comforting to the fans planning to spend their weekend refreshing a stat page hoping Mostert can get the last 0.3 points they need to go 1-o in their league.
Anyone who’s played fantasy football before knows the dreaded “Running Back By Committee.” They’re evil, but you live with it and plan accordingly. But what the hell is Miami’s “Running Back By Hot Hand” going to look like?
The first thing we can ask is whether McDaniel basically did this last season without coming out and saying it. To do that, we’ll see if there is a positive correlation between the number of carries Mostert or Achane had last year and their yards per carry. Here’s how that looks on a scatter plot:
We see a slight positive correlation, but it doesn’t look like performance within the game influenced how McDaniel split up the workload between the two. Let’s compare this to another prominent running back timeshare from last year with the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren:
Pittsburgh’s Running Back By Committee doesn’t look that different than Miami’s, at least, based on whether carries correlated with in-game performance. Maybe Miami has a slightly higher positive relationship between the two, but that also might reflect the fact that the Dolphins were a much more efficient running team, as well.
But while Harris and Warren played all 17 games for the Steelers last season, Mostert and Achane both missed games. Mostert missed the final two games of last season, while Achane missed Week 1, then played one game (where he took one carry) between Weeks 6 and 12.
As a result, Mostert and Achane were truly splitting the workload in just eight games. The stretches between Weeks 2 through 5 and then Weeks 13 through 16 are perhaps the only meaningful games we can use to determine what a McDaniel timeshare actually looks like. So, here is the scatter plot showing only those games:
Weirdly enough, there is a less strong relationship between workload and performance in games where both top RBs were available than when looking at the full season.
If we didn’t see a “Running Back By Hot Hand” situation last year, we have no real idea how McDaniel’s plan will play out in practice. A little help here, Mike?
“It doesn’t take long in a game for you to get a guy a couple carries, then the next guy gets a couple carries, and then the next guy gets a couple carries,” detailed McDaniel on how this might work. “And then you feel, ‘OK, well, this dude, it’s one of his days. We better lean on this guy and give him more.'”
So, fantasy owners rejoice… question mark? Your starting running back probably going to get two carries in the first quarter or so, and then will have to make his opportunities from there.
The good news is that if Miami’s backs play anything like last year, they’ll all be earning more carries as the games go on. Achane’s 7.8 yards per carry last season was absurdly great, while Mostert’s 4.8 YPC was strong in its own right, and Wilson averaged 4.6 to round out last year’s trio. Add in Wright, who averaged 7.4 YPC last season at Tennessee and 5.4 for Miami in the preseason.
Apologies to the fantasy owners out there who will bench Wright for Achane this year, only to regret the decision by the second quarter. But if you’re a Dolphins fan — or McDaniel — there are zero downsides to riding the hot hand between these four talented backs.
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