Dolphins’ Keys: Force Josh Allen To Force It
Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
The Miami Dolphins have a quick turnaround after their Week 1 nail-biter against the Jacksonville Jaguars, which unfortunately made more headlines for what happened before the game than during. Tonight, on four days of rest, they play their second consecutive home game as they welcome the rival Buffalo Bills to town. Buffalo has won 11 out of their last 12 matchups with Miami, and the Dolphins are looking to break that streak.
What are Miami’s keys to defeating the Bills and handing Josh Allen his first career Thursday Night Football loss? Let’s take a look.
Make Josh Allen Air It Out
With the exception of Lamar Jackson, there is perhaps no quarterback in the NFL who can carry an offense entirely on his back more than Josh Allen. The Wyoming product did exactly that on Sunday, as he had two touchdowns in the air and another two on the ground against the Arizona Cardinals.
Allen is indisputably the heir to Brett Favre as the NFL’s most noteworthy gunslinger. He is second to Patrick Mahomes in terms of yards thrown; however, he is also far and away the NFL’s leader in interceptions thrown since 2020. And after this offseason, he no longer has the services of top receiver Stefon Diggs.
Miami can’t tempt Allen with open running lanes. Their best chance to win will be forcing him to throw to his capable but inexperienced receiver corps of Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Dalton Kincaid. Not only does it prevent the Bills’ dynamic QB from taking over the game with his legs, but it increases the likelihood that Allen will commit a turnover and allow the Dolphins to establish and/or keep momentum.
In the Dolphins’ one victory against Josh Allen in 2022, he set his career-high in pass attempts with 63. That mark hasn’t even come close to being broken, as his next closest game featured 54 pass attempts. In that loss, Allen completed 42 of those passes for 400 yards and two touchdowns but was limited to eight rushing attempts for just 43 yards. The Dolphins led for the majority of the fourth quarter and Allen had to air it out to try and make the comeback.
It wasn’t a winning formula. These were the only points Buffalo scored in the fourth quarter:
Never forget the "butt punt" 😂 pic.twitter.com/8qWdasUXGN
— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) September 8, 2024
Lean On Fresh Legs
Raheem Mostert won’t play tonight and if De’Von Achane makes it onto the field, he won’t 100%. For most other teams, these injury issues with their running backs would doom them.
#Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel told reporters that RB Raheem Mostert (chest) is out Thursday night vs the #Bills. As for RB De'Von Achane (ankle), he’s a game-time decision. “We’ll see.”
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 11, 2024
With Achane being a game-time decision, the Dolphins may have to turn to Jeff Wilson Jr. and Jaylen Wright in the backfield, and the latter two are still relatively well-rested. Wilson was technically the Dolphins’ rushing leader on Sunday with 26 yards, but he only received five carries. Wright, on the other hand, was inactive for the game.
Even if Achane is active (and initial reports from Wednesday’s practice are promising), it might be best to rely on the running backs who are rested and ready to go. Especially in a game where, again, the Dolphins are playing on four days’ rest.
Wilson, who has loads of experience playing under head coach Mike McDaniel, has shown in years past that he is more than capable of putting up a monster game. Case in point, when McDaniel and the San Francisco 49ers played against Arizona in 2020, Wilson carried the ball 22 times for 183 yards. In a separate victory against the Cardinals, he showed what he could do, even when getting a single touch.
Every #49ers fans remembers being on the edge of their seats when Jeff Wilson Jr scored the game winning touchdown to beat the Cardinals in 2019
Best of luck in Miami || #FTTB pic.twitter.com/9xKIox0SdA
— 𝙏𝙝𝙚𝙎𝙁𝙉𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙨 (@TheSFNiners) November 2, 2022
For Wright, his explosiveness, speed, and agility in the backfield allows him to fit like a glove in Miami’s offensive system. Though he wasn’t used much as a receiver at Tennessee, his agility as a ball carrier gives the Dolphins’ backfield another potentially game-changing option.
Hit the Defense Where They Hurt
Bills head coach Sean McDermott has already ruled out two defensive players for Thursday night.
Coach McDermott has ruled Taron Johnson and Dawuane Smoot out for tomorrow’s game.#BUFvsMIA injury report: https://t.co/kGGZ2PkBvu pic.twitter.com/YFTpOGSBB8
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 11, 2024
If you’re keeping score at home, Taron Johnson is the Bills’ starting nickel cornerback (and Second-Team All-Pro from 2023), with Dawuane Smoot and Javon Solomon being two big parts of their pass rush. Even though Miami’s receiver room is relatively banged up at the moment, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Braxton Berrios are all healthy and active.
This gives Miami ample opportunity to take advantage of the injury holes and let their passing game sizzle. Arizona very nearly did that on Sunday in Buffalo, as they jumped to an early 17-3 lead in the second quarter. Unfortunately, they couldn’t keep their foot on the gas and allowed the Bills to come back and win the game. But the Dolphins offense is much more explosive than the Cardinals. They have the horses to go all-out for the full 60 minutes, and will need to do so in order to finally topple Buffalo.
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