Does the Emergence Of Zach Sieler Make Christian Wilkins Expendable?
Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) is pushed over by Miami Dolphins defensive tackle Zach Sieler (92) during the third quarter at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Fla., Monday, Dec. 11, 2023.
Lost in the ruckus of the Miami Dolphins’ blowout defeat at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens was a great individual performance by Zach Sieler. The 28-year-old defensive lineman, who received a three-year, $30 million extension from the Dolphins this August, got revenge against his former team on Sunday. With 8:22 left in the third quarter, Sieler ruthlessly stripped the football from the grasp of Ravens running back Gus Edwards, forcing the turnover. Sieler made his presence felt throughout the afternoon, finishing the game with a sack and five total tackles, including a tackle for loss and a quarterback hit.
While it may seem like Zach’s big day was a product of him being extra-motivated to face off against his former team, in reality Sieler has been consistently playing quality football as of late. He has registered a sack in each of his last three games, and is a half sack away from a double-digit season. For a guy drafted in the seventh round, he’s not only exceeded expectations but is quickly becoming one of the NFL’s better pass rushers on the interior.
Miami now has two dominant players in Christian Wilkins and Sieler manning the interior. Yet, Sieler’s emergence could have the Dolphins’ brass questioning whether or not they really need to extend Wilkins. It’s a good problem to have; the Dolphins can either ensure they have a dominant interior defensive line for years to come by bringing Wilkins back alongside Sieler, or they can save some money and allocate that cap space that would’ve been used on extending Wilkins for another important player.
The argument for bringing Wilkins back is straightforward. Not only are the Dolphins ensuring that they have a dominant interior defensive line for the next few years, but Miami would be less worried about Sieler’s play regressing since Wilkins would still be there to take on double teams. If the Dolphins let Wilkins walk in free agency, I’d expect Sieler’s production to be impacted in a major way.
The Dolphins are also in win-now mode, and it doesn’t make a ton of sense for them to let one of their best players on defense walk in free agency. Wilkins is a top-five interior defensive lineman in the NFL, and it would be very difficult to find a player who is just as impactful as him. Wilkins is the anchor of the Dolphins’ defensive line, and getting rid of him would make the team worse. So it would be unwise to get rid of him just to save money while downgrading at the position.
Then again, the Dolphins may not have much of a choice in the matter. Miami is set to be in salary cap hell this offseason. The exact number is difficult to determine, but Over The Cap has the Dolphins at negative $23 million in 2024, while Spotrac has the Dolphins $37 million dollars over the salary cap in that same timeframe. Plus, they have a ton of expiring contracts and extensions for star players they need to hammer out. Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, Jevon Holland, and Jaelan Phillips are all deserving of extensions, but there’s only so much money to go around.
Wilkins has made it known that he wants a massive payday, just above $20 million a year, which would place him among the highest paid IDLs in the league. While he certainly deserves it, the Dolphins may not be able to outbid other interested teams if he tests unrestricted free agency. Sieler has a career-high 9.5 sacks on the season, which is slightly more than Wilkins’ sack total this year. And since this is a breakout year for Sieler, he would come at a fraction of the cost.
The biggest question with Sieler is, how much would he regress next season without Wilkins beside him, if at all? If he can get at least five sacks in 2024 without Wilkins, then the Dolphins can afford to live without their star IDL. If he completely falls off and only gets a couple of sacks next year, then letting Wilkins walk in free agency could prove to be a mistake. Either way, the Dolphins will have a big decision to make this offseason.
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