Does The Anthony Weaver Hire Change The Christian Wilkins Decision?
Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports
Recently, the Miami Dolphins announced that they hired Anthony Weaver as their new defensive coordinator. Weaver is a former defensive end who spent seven years in the NFL as a member of the Baltimore Ravens from 2002-2005 under defensive coordinator Mike Nolan and defensive line coach Rex Ryan. Weaver later played with the Houston Texans from 2006-2008 before retiring. Following his playing career, he spent two years coaching in the collegiate ranks before getting his first NFL coaching job as an assistant defensive line coach under New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan, who Weaver knew from his time in Baltimore.
So it shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise to hear that Weaver’s style of defense is very similar to that of Rex Ryan. Both coaches have an aggressive, attack-first mindset and they play a ton of Cover 1 with press coverage on the outside. Another thing they have in common is how much they prioritize stopping the run. Anthony Weaver told the Ravens website in 2021:
“We are determined and impassioned to go out there and make teams one-dimensional and be tough and physical at the line of scrimmage. Get those guys on the second level swarming and knocking people down, because you want to make the team one-dimensional and know that you’re not going to come here and push us around and try to bully us. We’re the bullies, you better put the ball in the air.”
With it being abundantly clear that Anthony Weaver’s defensive motto is trying to win the battle in the trenches, does that change the impending Christian Wilkins free agency decision? We all know that Christian Wilkins wants to be paid top-dollar. Before the start of the 2023 season, the Dolphins and Wilkins were unable to reach an agreement on a new contract. Currently, Spotrac projects that Wilkins calculated market value is at $20 million AAV. Given that the Dolphins are slated to be roughly $50 million above the salary cap limit, most people naturally assumed that retaining Wilkins is a luxury Miami cannot afford.
However, the salary cap is malleable. There are ways the Dolphins can clear enough salary cap space by way of extending players with high cap hits or restructuring contracts of underperforming players. All of this can be done before the start of free agency, which means the Dolphins still have time to get a deal done with Christian Wilkins if they want to. The big question is, how badly does Anthony Weaver want Wilkins?
Christian Wilkins is consistently ranked as one of the league’s premier interior defensive linemen. Andy Benoit, head of football analysis for The 33rd Team, ranked Wilkins as the third best defensive tackle when it comes to on-ball run defense ahead of the 2023 season. PFF also has Christian Wilkins ranked as 18th best in terms of run defense grades. Meanwhile, the Dolphins run defense ranked 7th in the league in average rushing yards allowed per game. The last three games however, the Dolphins ranked 25th in the league when they faced off against Buffalo, Baltimore, and Dallas to close out the regular season. Miami is also middle of the pack in defensive DVOA against the run, ranking 16th in the NFL.
Personally, I felt like the Dolphins had an above average defense in terms of talent, that struggled at times stopping the run in Vic Fangio’s zone heavy scheme. Even against worse teams like the Titans and Commanders, the Dolphins were still susceptible against the run. The first question Anthony Weaver needs to answer before the start of free agency is: “Can we be tough and physical at the line of scrimmage and make opposing offenses one-dimensional without Christian Wilkins anchoring the middle of the defense?”
One can argue that Anthony Weaver’s background makes him more qualified to find an adequate replacement for Wilkins because he understands what he’s looking for in defensive tackles as a former defensive line coach. Then again, when Weaver was the defensive coordinator in Houston back in 2020, his defense struggled mightily. Granted, the Texans defense was devoid of talent with the exception of J.J. Watt, but the Dolphins will need to consider how much talent they’ll have on defense in 2024 if they choose to part ways with Wilkins.
Can Zach Sieler anchor the interior without Wilkins? How much faith does Anthony Weaver have in his ability to find an affordable yet effective replacement in free agency or the draft? Moreover, is Weaver willing to risk his job security by losing arguably his best player on defense? These are all questions he needs to ask himself ahead of such a pivotal offseason.
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