Can The Dolphins Keep Their Super Bowl Window Alive By Drafting A Quarterback?
Syndication: Palm Beach Post
For the past four seasons, the Miami Dolphins have had the luxury of starting a quarterback on a rookie-scale contract. Tua Tagovailoa has developed into one of the most accurate passers in the league and has earned the trust of his teammates and coaching staff along the way. Despite the Dolphins benefitting from above-average quarterback play on an affordable contract, Tua’s time in Miami has been defined by missed opportunities, with two wild card losses to Buffalo and Kansas City.
Miami hasn’t been able to get over the hump these past two seasons, and now their Super Bowl window is slowly starting to close. The Dolphins are set to be $52 million over the projected salary cap, and there are plenty of important decisions that need to be made before the start of free agency. Chris Grier and company will do their best to minimize the losses, but something has to give and the Dolphins will inevitably have to part ways with some great players.
The Dolphins could potentially reset the clock and keep their Super Bowl window alive by drafting a quarterback in the first round of the draft. At first the idea sounds crazy. Tua Tagovailoa is by far Miami’s best option at quarterback. Tagovailoa is coming off the best season of his career where he passed for 4,624 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. To put that in perspective, the last time a Dolphins QB passed for more yards than Tua in a season was in 1986 when Dan Marino threw for 4,746 yards. In a league where it is difficult to find quality quarterback play, Tua offers security at the most important position in football.
However, Tua Tagovailoa has come up short time and time again against playoff caliber opponents. In 2023, The Tua-led Dolphins went 1-5 against playoff teams in the regular season and he still has yet to win a playoff game. In the six games Tua played against playoff teams this season, he averaged 232 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 int, and an 83.3 passer rating. That statline is the definition of good, but not great.
Tua Tagovailoa is due for a massive extension this offseason, and all signs are pointing to the Dolphins extending him. Chris Grier said the goal is to keep Tua in Miami long-term. Spotrac has his market value at $50 million a year on a six year deal worth over $300 million. Tua hasn’t proven enough to be worth that kind of money, and the only way you can win a Super Bowl with him is if you have a championship caliber roster around him since he is a system QB. The problem is, there is no way you can pay Tua that much and still put a championship level roster around him.
If you’re the Dolphins front office and you don’t believe Tua can elevate your team, then it would be wiser to draft his replacement this offseason. Sure, a rookie quarterback would probably be worse than Tua in the short-term, but the money you’d be saving would enable you to keep most of the major players on your roster. The team as a whole would be better off, and if that rookie quarterback can manage the game like Brock Purdy does in a Shanahan/McDaniel style of offense, then you can keep your championship window open for a few more years.
Finding a game manager at quarterback isn’t as hard as you may think. In 2014, Ryan Tannehill passed for over 4,000 yards as a member of the Dolphins, and now he’s on the outs in Tennessee. He’s not the same player he was 10 years ago, but he would be a quality bridge quarterback for the Dolphins if they wanted to save money and move on from Tua. Also, with Michael Penix Jr. falling down draft boards due to his medical history, the Dolphins could be in a position where they can draft another left handed quarterback. Penix Jr may not have the same level of upside as Jayden Daniels or Caleb Williams, but he’s a one of the more polished quarterback prospects in this draft class and operated in a pro-style, pass first offense at Washington.
Now, there’s a chance that Penix doesn’t pan out and Ryan Tannehill is completely washed up, but it may be the lesser of two evils. If you give Tua Tagovailoa a $50 million a year extension, and he doesn’t get the Dolphins to the Super Bowl within the next couple of years, then Miami will be stuck in neutral for a long time. Tua hasn’t shown that he can elevate his team against quality opponents, which is why it may be better for the Dolphins to move on from Tua now in order to retain as much talent as possible for a quarterback capable of doing more with it.
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