Can Miami Pull Off An Offensive Triple Crown?
Photo Credit: Jim Rassol via USA TODAY Sports
The Miami Dolphins are living something special. After a historic 70-20 win over the Denver Broncos, it became even more clear how efficient this offense is, and how high the ceiling can be. If you look around the league, it’s difficult (maybe impossible) to find a better team.
A team this good requires the confluence of incredible circumstances, and that’s exactly the case here. Through three weeks, it’s fair to argue that Miami has the Coach Of the Year, the MVP, and the Offensive Player Of the Year, all working together, all complementing each other.
The Head Coach
Last year, the Dolphins improved dramatically under Mike McDaniel’s philosophy. Things got stale as the season went on, especially with a sequence of Tua Tagovailoa‘s injuries, and defenses caught up. But McDaniel was able to adapt again to start this season.
After the first game, I wrote about the outmotion and how it created challenges for defenses. On Sunday against the Denver Broncos, there were even more creative plays. And not only that: creative run plays and blocking schemes.
Through 3 weeks, this Dolphins offense has had the best single-season success rate in the NFL since 2012 (via @TruMediaSports's database). pic.twitter.com/8VyW74Apo0
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 24, 2023
“Shame on us if you put a ceiling on what you’re capable of,” McDaniel said after the win. “If you just worry about the right things, you don’t worry about anything but your technique and fundamentals and your assignment within the team. You don’t worry about stats, you don’t worry about credit, it’s amazing what a group of people can do going in one direction.”
Without a minimum of pass attempts to qualify, the two best QBs in passer rating through three weeks are Mike White (158.3) and Tua Tagovailoa (121.9). Both play for the Miami Dolphins. They don’t have a bona fide elite running back, but Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane might make you question that notion.
So far, the Dolphins are first in EPA/play, success rate, dropback EPA, and second in rush EPA. They are the best offense in football, and it’s not even close. McDaniel is the early frontrunner for Coach Of the Year.
The MVP
Tua Tagovailoa is first in EPA/play, at 0.517. If you don’t know exactly how good this is, nobody else is better than 0.350. The gap between Tua and Brock Purdy, who ranks second, is bigger than the gap between Purdy and the 11th-highest-ranking QB, Matthew Stafford. Tua completed 17 straight passes to start the game on Sunday.
And this is not only good for this year’s standards, it’s a historic pace. His EPA per dropback between Weeks 1-3 is the second-best since 2000, according to TruMedia, behind only Tom Brady in 2007.
“I take a lot of pride in how we perform and how we do things offensively,” Tua said. “If it’s a Week 1 deal, you’re either Super Bowl contenders or you’re the worst team in the league. I try not to pay attention to any of that, try to talk that kind of mindset into our guys offensively to put your head down — whatever you’ve been doing with your studying, just continue to do that and stay on that course. When we go, our team goes.”
Tagovailoa is on the way to get a massive contract extension, and Dolphins fans should feel pretty good about it.
The Offensive Player Of the Year
Next Gen Stats tracks the speed of each player on each play. Of the five top-speed plays of the season so far, Tyreek Hill has three of them, all above 21.5 mph. He is second in receiving yards, first in receiving touchdowns, tied for first in receptions of 40-plus yards, first in first downs converted, first in air yards per snap, second in average depth of target, and second in yards per route run.
Lol. Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill for a 54-yard TD.
This Dolphins offense is freaking absurd. pic.twitter.com/UtqcqUfzz4
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) September 24, 2023
Just running post routes, Hill had five receptions for 122 yards and a touchdown. Just one route, in one game. He had 157 yards on in-breaking routes, which is the most in a game for any NFL player since 2019.
No non-quarterback player has been more impactful to their offense than Tyreek Hill. Even without Jaylen Waddle, who missed the game because of a concussion, the offense was as explosive as you could imagine. Hill not only produces at an absurd level, but his ability to stretch the field opens up space for everyone else. He is a true difference-maker and force-multiplier.
The Miami Dolphins have the best offense in football and a special season ahead. Mike McDaniel, Tua Tagovailoa, and Tyreek Hill are the faces of this movement, and the main question now is: How much history do they make?
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