Buffalo’s Defensive Disguises Exposed New Dolphins Concern
Mandatory credit: Jamie Germano Democrat and Chronicle
Much of what could have gone wrong for the Miami Dolphins on Sunday did go wrong. Injuries to left tackle Terron Armstead and center Connor Williams led to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa being pressured on 35% of his snaps, after having a league-low 21.2% pressure over the first three weeks. Tua was sacked four times after being sacked only once on the season before Sunday. And although that issue seems like the glaring offensive concern in Miami, it’s a personnel and talent problem that will be automatically solved as soon as Armstead and Williams are healthy again.
The more concerning development out of Buffalo was Tagovailoa’s inability to progress through his reads.
In Weeks 1 to 3, Tagovailoa threw to his first read on 80.2% of the plays. The development of the offense was much more affected by the Buffalo Bills’ defense on Sunday, causing Tua to throw to his first read on a season-low 57.1%. The middle of the field, which had been the Dolphins offensive priority, was better occupied thus forcing Tagovailoa to make harder throws.
“They pressured on the early downs in the earlier drives of the game, and then they kind of got their flow of the game,” Tua said after the first loss of the season. “Then they started to just play what they play – play coverage, read their run fits, read their run keys and things like that. I think they’ve done a great job on that side of the ball in mitigating big plays for us offensively.”
Tagovailoa was still extremely efficient — second in EPA/play for the season, as he was surpassed this week by San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy. And the Dolphins’ offense will probably be excellent against most of their opponents this season. But for a team that has championship aspirations, being able to impose one’s game plan on the toughest defenses is a necessity.
“It’s all about how you respond to everything,” head coach Mike McDaniel said. “Just like if we would have won the game, how would we respond to that? This is a young team that needs to learn fast to get out of this season what they want. This provides an outstanding opportunity, and my eyes will be open to watch every single person across the board, how they respond to it because this doesn’t define your season.”
In general, the Bills’ defense is a terrible matchup for the Dolphins’ offense. Going into Week 4, the Bills led the league in middle-of-the-field disguise percentage, at 41.2%. No other team is above 35%. That means they present a type of look, and frequently change it post-snap. In Buffalo’s particular case, generally it’s from a pre-snap open look to a post-snap closed look. This approach makes it challenging to throw to the middle of the field.
This play encapsualtes what the Bills did.
It looks like Dane is in M2M, with a cool rotation deep by Johnson. This takes away the 1st read. Tua doesn't recognize the coverage and moves all the way across the field and nearly gets it intercepted by White. pic.twitter.com/fYFPK9sS1T
— Erik Turner Cover 1 (@ErikJTurner) October 2, 2023
Yet Tagovailoa completed 71.4% of his passes, threw for 282 yards, and had a 92.8 passer rating. It’s not nearly as good as it had been, but it’s still an above-average performance. Unfortunately, given the current state of the defense, the offense can’t afford to be simply above average when facing an elite opponent with a powerhouse offense.
“You don’t just go down the field and score at will in the National Football League over and over and over,” McDaniel added. “You’re going to punt, and they’re going to make plays, too. What you can’t do is have self-inflicted wounds.”
Those self-inflicted wounds have to include an inability to adjust. For the first time in some time, McDaniel and his staff seemed out-coached on Sunday. Like we’ve seen too often in the past, the young coach abandoned the run game when things got tough, playing right into Buffalo’s strengths against Tagovailoa.
Part of the rushing offense was still effective. De’Von Achane had 12.6 yards per carry, finishing the game with 101 yards and two touchdowns. Even though Raheem Mostert wasn’t as good, Tyreek Hill and Braxton Berrios got 14 yards and 11 yards, respectively, on runs as the opportunity was there. It’s may be extremely difficult to keep a balanced offense when the defense is allowing the opponent to score on basically every drive, but it’s that balance that can help Mcdaniel control the clock and game flow, which can ultimately lead to control of the scoreboard.
Sometimes this is what happens when two offensive heavyweights collide. The flow of the game demands a high passing productivity, and things can get out of control. But with several extremely talented teams on the horizon, the Dolphins’ staff would be wise to address their shortcomings when the middle of the filed is taken. This is a copycat league, and you can bet they are going to see similar looks moving forward.
Up Next