A Deep Dive On Tua’s First Half Of 2023

By Wendell Ferreira on November 9, 2023

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There are always questions about how to properly separate quarterback play from the overall talent of the offense and scheme. This is particularly interesting when discussing Tua Tagovailoa. His two, average at best, seasons to start his career followed by his impressive progression with head coach Mike McDaniel andTyreek Hill.

It’s clear that Tua himself has taken steps forward in his development, but it’s also evident that the infrastructure helped him achieve that — as is the case for any successful quarterback around the league.

First, and least important, it’s pertinent to try to isolate Tagovailoa’s performance to discuss individual awards — is he in the MVP race, for example? But more importantly, the Dolphins management has to decide if Tua is the future of the franchise.

Common stats

Using normal stats, it’s hard to say that Tua Tagovailoa isn’t the best quarterback of the 2023 season. He’s first in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and passer rating. He’s 2nd in yards per attempt and 4th in completion percentage.

Tua has been ultra efficient. Those stats, though, are not as effective to isolate quarterback play. It shows how the offense is good and explosive, and how well Tua has operated it to maximize the ability of its playmakers.

Advanced metrics

There are better ways, though, to truly evaluate quarterback play. And that’s important because Tagovailoa has made real improvements in his game over the last two years beyond the quality of what’s around him.

Looking at advanced metrics, Tua is 1st in PFF passing grade (90.1) and 4th in overall grade, behind only Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jared Goff. You might not like or agree with PFF grades, but it’s one of the most reliable metrics in terms of sustainability over the years, because it does as good of a job as possible to truly isolate individual performance.
It shows how efficient and explosive Tagovailoa has been as a passer. The Dolphins quarterback has a 6.5% big-time throw rate, well ahead of the 4.3% he had last season. It’s by far the highest number of his NFL career. At the same time, Tua has been solid, limiting bad plays. He’s had a 2.6% turnover-worthy play rate, well below the 4.2% of last season.
Tua is not the highest-graded quarterback just because he’s not a good creator as a runner, and that might limit his overall ceiling. This season, his PFF rushing grade is 29.0, by far the worst among 36 qualified quarterbacks. Nobody else is below 45.0. That’s a big difference if compared to players like Allen and Jackson.

It’s not impossible to be an elite quarterback with this skill set, but it demands a better environment. It stresses the offensive line to protect better, or the wide receivers to be open quickly in order to allow Tagovailoa to operate from within the pocket. Against heavier and stronger defensive lines, it has been a problem.

In terms of efficiency from himself and from the entire offense, other advanced metrics also paint a favorable picture of his performance. Tua is 4th in EPA/play, 4th in success rate, and 5th in completion percentage over expected — this is a particularly interesting metric because it shows Tagovailoa is creating more than what the system gives him.
On the other hand, Tua is 16th in air yards per attempt, an indication that the playmakers are creating a lot of his raw yardage production after the catch.

Three best games by PFF grades:
Chargers 92.1
Broncos 87.8
Eagles 85.7

Three worst games by PFF grades:
Giants 56.5
Bills 59.3
Chiefs 66.7

Leadership

Tua Tagovailoa is not necessarily a vocal leader, but his soft skills are more evident now. He’s assumed, for example, that he has to be better to make sure the communication is better after a botched snap killed the Dolphins chances against the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday.

It’s not Tua’s fault, but the quarterback does the right thing by not blaming his teammates. And head coach Mike McDaniel sees that.

“It gives you a chance to do — to maximize what you have as a team and do something special with your season. I think everybody in the locker room knows it’s not on his shoulders,” McDaniel said. “All that does with a leader and a captain and the starting quarterback of your team, when he’s over-the-top accountable for everything that he does, how does it not snowball for the rest of the team. It sets the standard for how we look at, how each one of us looks at our jobs.”

This is by far the best Tua Tagovailoa has played throughout his career. It’s not perfect, and the quarterback has physical limitations as a playmaker. But Tua’s efficiency as a passer and his mental capabilities to exploit defenses and maximize his offensive skill players are nearly unmatched in the NFL.

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