The Winds Are About To Change For the Buccaneers
Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images
It might feel like the sky is falling for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and probably for good reason. They have a 4-5 record, have lost two games in a row, and their two best wide receivers are still out. They’ll face the San Francisco 49ers coming off a bye week on Sunday, which will be a challenging match. Still, there are plenty of reasons for optimism, even if they find themselves at 4-6 on Sunday night.
Even though the Buccaneers finished in first place in the NFC South last season, which should theoretically give them the hardest schedule of anyone in the division… But that’s not playing out as such. Tampa is about to embark on an incredibly soft schedule, which gives the Bucs a realistic chance to make the playoffs.
According to tankathon.com, Tampa has the easiest remaining schedule of all NFL teams. Their biggest obstacles are the 4-4 49ers and the 5-3 Los Angeles Chargers. Of their eight remaining games, five of them are against teams that are currently 2-7, with a sixth against the 3-5 Dallas Cowboys.
Compare that to, say, the Seattle Seahawks, whose 4-5 record is identical to Tampa’s. They’ll have to face the Minnesota Vikings (6-2), Green Bay Packers (6-3), two games against the Arizona Cardinals (5-4), and a trio of 4-4 clubs in the 49ers, LA Rams, and Chicago Bears. The Buccaneers are on the inside track.
So, how realistic are the Bucs’ chances of actually making the playoffs? Let’s break that down.
San Francisco 49ers — The 49ers are going to be the toughest game on the rest of the schedule, and Baker Mayfield’s squad is currently a six-point underdog. The good news for the Bucs is San Francisco hasn’t been as nearly consistent this season, and Tampa Bay just nearly came out on top against the best team in the NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs. I think if they are in a similar situation this weekend, Todd Bowles might make a different decision. Maybe Tampa Bay will go for two and win the game. Even with a loss, though, the Bucs have a path, even if they won’t have much room for error.
New York Giants — After a bye, the Bucs will go on the road to face the Giants. Not only will the Bucs have a couple of weeks to prepare for this game, but they are hoping Mike Evans will be back, which will be a huge boost for the offense. It doesn’t matter how bad the defense is; Daniel Jones has been awful this season. This is a game the Bucs should win.
Carolina Panthers — The Panthers are coming off a victory, but don’t let that fool you; this is one of the worst teams in the NFL. Bryce Young doesn’t look like an NFL quarterback, and outside his first start, Andy Dalton hasn’t looked much better.
Las Vegas Raiders — The Raiders also have some quarterback questions. Are we starting to see a trend? When the Raiders traded away Davante Adams, they signaled that they were punting on this season. Gardner Minshew was a good story a couple of years ago and a serviceable backup, but not someone leading you to a title. The Raiders defense also just gave up 41 points to the Cincinnati Bengals. It’s going to be another big game for Baker Mayfield.
Los Angeles Chargers — The Chargers would likely be favored, but Justin Herbert has still looked a little bit inconsistent. They’ll need to tap into that Chiefs game level of defense to take that game.
Dallas Cowboys — There is talk about Dak Prescott needing season-ending hamstring surgery, but even if he is playing… Have you watched the Cowboys this year? This is a very winnable game for the Buccaneers. This Cowboys defense gave up 44 points to the New Orleans Saints earlier this season. The Saints! By this point, the Cowboys are going to be so far out of the playoffs that Mike McCarthy might already be fired.
Carolina Panthers — If you need a refresher, read above.
New Orleans Saints — After a hot start to the season, the Saints have been awful, and now the vibes are soured. They just fired their coach, people are starting to turn on Derek Carr, and the Saints are going to want to get that season over with.
The path is clear. Even if they drop the two games against .500 or better teams, all they need to do is sweep the rest, and that’s good enough for a 10-7 record. The NFC looks better than last year, when the Packers snuck into the last Wild Card spot with a 9-8 record, but 10 wins should still be enough to punch their ticket to the playoffs.
They’ve got more than the schedule going for them, too. You saw the laundry list of mediocre quarterbacks listed above. Tampa’s defensive stats are bad, but when you’re facing a lineup of QBs that includes Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Jared Goff, and Kirk Cousins twice… stuff happens. Heck, even Bo Nix is turning out to be better than we thought.
Naturally, with a decrease in quarterback talent comes a downgrade in the level of offenses the Bucs will face. After this week, the strongest offense they’ll face is the Chargers, who are ranked 20th by PFF. The Giants (25th), Panthers (26th), Raiders (28th), and Cowboys (29th) are all bottom-of-the-barrel. Those defensive issues Tampa had against Cousins, Jackson, and Mahomes are going to look a lot less pressing.
Especially when Evans is back to give Tampa a semblance of an outside passing game. Even having to lean on Cade Otton and the running game, though, the Bucs have put up 50 points in two games, so the offense should give them much more breathing room than in weeks past.
The Bucs might be sitting in 11th place right now, but the NFL’s playoff odds know how well their schedule works for them. They have a 37% chance to sneak in, according to Next Gen. Compare that to Green Bay, who sit in the final Wild Card spot and have only a 63% chance of making the playoffs, despite their 6-3 record. Why? Having to play the Detroit Lions, Vikings, and Bears is a heck of a tough slate of games.
Now, the Bucs might have an easier schedule doesn’t mean they can’t slip up and lose. And if they do lose to, say, the Cowboys, there’s no margin for error. Still, the Bucs have a true road to the playoffs — and it’s a lot less bumpy than the ones their competition has to travel on. There are still things that need to be improved upon, and the defense can’t make a quarterback like Young unexpectedly shine, but things could be a lot worse for Tampa. It’s still going to take a near-perfect finish to the season, but that goal is much more manageable than their 4-5 record would usually suggest.
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