Is Bucs’ Bend-But-Don’t-Break Defense Built For The Playoffs?
Dec 31, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers stand one win away from clinching the NFC South Division, with the 2-14 Carolina Panthers standing in the way. After missing out on an opportunity to clinch against the New Orleans Saints, the Bucs can’t take anything for granted, but the playoffs should be a doable task.
The question will become: What happens if they get there?
No offense to probable 4,000-yard passer Baker Mayfield, this Tampa team is a long way from Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski’s Super Bowl-winners from two years ago. They’ll also be fighting history to make the Super Bowl. Only the 2011 New York Giants won the Big Game with a nine-win season, and they’re one of only five teams to lift the Lombardi Trophy with fewer than 11 wins.
Winning isn’t everything, though, as Vince Lombardi himself once said (never mind that he followed it up with “it’s the only thing.”). The Bucs don’t have to repeat their accomplishments from two years ago to have a successful season, but they will want to make some noise in the playoffs. To do that, they’ll lean heavily on Mayfield’s passing attack, for sure. They’ll also need their defense to remain strong throughout the postseason.
The Tampa Bay defense is strong, surrendering just 20.3 points per game, which is tied with the Atlanta Falcons for ninth in the NFL. That’s great, but wait a second: opposing offenses torch the Bucs defense. Their 353.3 yards per game ranks 25th in the NFL, and they rank dead last in passing yards allowed.
These two things are generally incompatible. If you’re giving up lots of yards, what’s stopping teams from invading in the end zone? But the Bucs’ defense has truly been a bend-but-don’t-break outfit, and consistently so. Aside from a 39-37 loss to the Houston Texans, the most points Tampa’s given up this season has been 27. They did it twice, and one of those was against Brock Purdy’s San Francisco 49ers. In 13 of 16 games, they’ve surrendered 25 or fewer points.
Can this continue in the playoffs, though, when the stakes get higher and the opposing teams are all strong? Given that it’s tough to both a top-10 scoring and bottom-10 yardage defense, it’s hard to find too many comparables. In the last 10 seasons, there’ve only been seven such defenses. Let’s look at those teams and find out how their defenses held up in the postseason.
Good news for the Bucanneers: Their kind of defense took six of seven teams to the playoffs, and one team to the Super Bowl. That speaks well about the probability of them punching their ticket on Sunday. It’s that pesky playoff stuff that threatens to be a downer here.
Like we said, the 2017 New England Patriots’ bend-but-don’t-break defense went to the Super Bowl, and the 2021 Kansas City Chiefs got to the AFC Championship Game with theirs. That reason for optimism comes with the caveat that those teams each had generational quarterbacks in Brady and Patrick Mahomes. Even counting those runs, these teams are a combined 5-6 in the playoffs, with zero wins coming from a team that didn’t rock Brady or Mahomes at quarterback.
Worse yet, all but the 2021 Chiefs surrendered more yards in the postseason, with only the 2016 Chiefs holding steady with their regular season points allowed average. And when these defenses did break, they shattered. In those aforementioned six losses, the six defenses combined to surrender 452.5 yards and 30.7 points, on average. Even the 2017 Patriots gave up 538 yards and 41 points in their Super Bowl LII defeat.
Maybe it’s not breaking news to say “this .500 Bucs team could be in trouble come playoff time,” which is where we land with this. But it’s true that Tampa’s defense plays in a way that flirts with disaster, which they’ve avoided with a relatively strong run defense, as well as timely turnovers and stops. History suggests that the bill for that is coming due soon, and that it won’t be pretty when it arrives.
Up Next