Assessing Nick Chubb’s Future
Photo Credit: Philip G. Pavely via USA TODAY Sports
Nick Chubb is in the mix this season as the top running back in the NFL, with the San Francisco 49ers’ Christian McCaffery and Tennessee Titans’ Derrick Henry as the frontrunners. Any one of them could be considered No. 1 in their own right. Since Chubb was drafted in 2018, he has been the heart and soul of the Browns offense.
What is next for the Browns super-star running back throughout the next couple of years? Chubb’s contract expires at the end of the 2024-2025 season, leaving the door open for him to explore other possibilities if the Browns choose to not re-sign him. Will the Browns end up retaining their No. 1 back when his contract comes to an end, or will the price of a new contract and the fit of Chubb in the evolving offense be enough to let him walk?
The addition of Deshaun Watson in early 2022 marked a new era for the Cleveland Browns. At last they have a proven, elite player at quarterback. This addition also brings with it a quarterback who is known to let the ball fly, which accounts for his multiple 4,000-plus-yard seasons. The Browns, like most of the modern NFL, are switching to a pass-heavy offense, leaving running backs as an afterthought.
It is important to recognize that Watson’s return to football towards the end of the 2022 season wasn’t the best quarterback play we’ve ever seen following his off year with the Houston Texans, followed by his lengthy suspension. It’s fair to assume that he will return to form in 2023 and beyond.
Chubb is an elite talent, but come 2024 will the Browns want to spend money in other areas? In the 2025 offseason, they may want to focus more on re-signing players like WR Elijah Moore, who is set to be a free agent, or any other receivers that Watson finds a connection with. This might make more sense for a pass-first offense than keeping a running back who isn’t dual-threat as a pass catcher, unlike other star backs in the NFL.
If Chubb’s price ends up being low enough, the Browns would surely love to re-sign him – except in a league where running back value is due for a reckoning, this is not likely to be the case. Many backs across the NFL feel they are being undervalued, with former Denver Broncos running back Melvin Gordon going as far to say that running back is “literally the worst position to play in the NFL right now. It literally sucks.” Chubb, along with many other running backs set to become a free agent over the next few years, may want to try to reset the market.
The highest-paid running back in the NFL right now is the 49ers’ Christian McCaffery, who earns $16 million a year. You can find Chubb at No. 5 on the list at $12.2 million. Once 2025 rolls around, the market for running back will be up, meaning that Chubb will most likely be asking for at least $18 million a year, more than the Browns may want to pay for a back who will be turning 29 at the end of 2024.
There is not another back in the NFL like Chubb, but again we’re talking two years down the line for a player who will likely want a two- to four-year contract. The Browns will not want to pay someone at a position where players almost always see a significant drop in production around age 30. If the offensive line is still as good as it is now, the Browns might be able to just draft a replacement in the backfield. Or perhaps second-year running back Jerome Ford will work as a suitable replacement.
Chubb has been a staple of the Browns’ offense since he joined the team, so it would be hard for both the organization and Chubb to part ways. There is a world in which Chubb understands the situation the team is in and where he fits in the offense, takes a contract around $15 million for however many years he plans to keep playing, and gets to stay with the team he got drafted by – potentially a win-win for both sides.
In this scenario, the Browns get to tenure a player who helped revive a struggling team, and someone who future running backs can learn from. Chubb would get to make enough money to potentially stay in the upper echelons of running back contracts while also not being an enormous cap hit for the organization.
Nick Chubb is the second-greatest running back in Browns history, right behind the late Jim Brown, so it would be tough to see him leave after 2024. Although the team may want to keep Chubb in the backfield until he retires, it might also be in the best interest of the organization to let him walk so they can focus more time and money on young talent.
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