What Are The Realistic Expectations for Nick Chubb
Photo Credit: Sam Greene via USA TODAY Sports
Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb suffered a devastating knee injury in Week 2 of the NFL season, and there were questions after the season if he would be back in Ohio for the upcoming season. Chubb was set to make $12.2 million in 2024, a number that no one expected the Browns to bring him back on, but he reworked his deal to spend at least one more year in the brown, orange, and white.
Chubb is coming off an MCL and ACL injury, which has tamped some expectations, but Chubb is set up to succeed this upcoming season. There is a chance Chubb won’t be back to start the 2024 season, but Brown’s general manager, Andrew Berry, was encouraged by the former Georgia Bulldogs’ progress.
“He’s doing a really nice job in his rehab,” Berry said. “Still has got a long way to go, but he’s progressing nicely given this point in time.”
Chubb’s best season in the NFL came in 2022, when he rushed 302 times for 1,525 yards, and 27 touchdowns. During his career he has rushed 1,238 yards, for 6,588 yards, and 48 touchdowns. There still has to be the concern about when Chubb will be back, but if he’s healthy, there is no reason why he can’t have the best season of his career.
The biggest reason why there should be optimism for the 2024 season is the change at offensive coordinator. Ken Dorsey was brought in this offseason from the Buffalo Bills, and he is going to have a pass-heavy approach. It might sound a bit backward that in a pass-first offense, Chubb could have a career year, but a deeper look at the numbers shows why. Dorsey often used three and four wide receiver sets when he was in Buffalo, which means there were not as many stacked boxes.
With Chubb being one of the best running backs in the league, a stacked box is something he was used to, but that’s a lot harder to do with three and four wide receivers lined up outside. According to Pro Football Focus, Chubb is one of six backs in the NFL that has had at least 200 rushes against a defense over the last three years and has had eight defenders in the box. If it weren’t for 15 games missed last season, Chubb would have even more.
The wide receiver talent that the Browns have is going to take a ton of pressure off of Chubb, also. The team traded for Jerry Jeudy this offseason to add to an already talented room. Amari Cooper is still on the team after catching 72 passes for 1,250 yards and five touchdowns. Don’t forget Elijah Moore, who had a career year last year in Cleveland. Single coverage isn’t going to go well on any of the three guys, which is going to open up even more room for Chubb. David Njoku also shouldn’t be overlooked.
It’s hard to give real expectations without knowing how healthy Chubb is going to be heading into the season, but assuming he is healthy, there will be plenty of opportunities for Chubb to impress. If he is healthy, Chubb is going to quickly remind the rest of the league that he is one of the best backs in the league.
If Chubb isn’t healthy to start the season, the Browns do have Jermone Ford, who rushed last season 204 times for 813 and four touchdowns. Either way, the Browns offense looks to be in good shape heading into the season led by Deshaun Watson, Jeudy, Copper, and Chubb. The Browns have dreams of winning the Super Bowl, a goal that can only be accomplished with a significant contribution from Chubb.
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