The Kevin Stefanski Connundrum
Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Five weeks into the NFL calendar, the butterflies of early-season hopes and dreams have worn off and the frustrations of many fan bases are starting to take center stage. Currently it’s hard to find a hotter seat than Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley’s rocking chair made of lava, but Cleveland Browns’ head coach Kevin Stefanski is seemingly not far behind.
A lot of offseason money and a great deal of preseason expectations have resulted in a 2-2 start as conspiracy theories about Stefanski and Deshaun Watson swirled during the bye week.
“You never hear a head coach call a QB out like that.”@RSherman_25 says Kevin Stefanski’s criticism of Deshaun Watson was “strange” pic.twitter.com/vh3LHipKJn
— UNDISPUTED (@undisputed) October 3, 2023
After an incredible Coach Of the Year campaign in his first season, Stefanski’s trajectory since has been mediocre at best. As the Browns exit the bye and prepare to face perhaps their toughest matchup of the season in the San Francisco 49ers, the fourth-year coach has his work cut out for him. With a roster built to contend, Stefanski needs to prove that he can make things work with this quarterback and this offense if he expects to be the leader of the organization moving forward.
But what does that mean?
There are a million different metrics by which fans and media measure offensive success, but if you’re paying attention to some of the league’s modern offenses, the metric is pretty simple: Have you built a system in which your quarterback can consistently put 100-or-higher passer rating performances on the board?
Last season, the quarterbacks who put up a passer rating of 100 or greater won approximately 75% of those games. Of the ones who lost, often times that came against opposing quarterbacks who also had a 100-plus passer rating.
Perhaps this is a chicken-and-egg conversation. If your team’s playing well, it’s relatively easy for a quarterback to put up 100 rating. Classic correlation rather than causation. But take a look at the Browns’ next opponent the San Francisco 49ers. Kyle Shanahan has found a way to consistently get 100-plus performances from the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo, Brock Purdy, and even Nick Mullens. A strong running game and smartly schemed plays with easy reads allow the 49ers to succeed on offense, game in and game out.
A quick look at one of Shanahan’s minions produces more evidence. Tua Tagovailoa was left for NFL mediocrity after his first couple seasons, but Mike McDaniel has completely simplified Tua’s responsibilities and built a system around him that is meant to be efficient. Of course, having Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle helps, but through the first three games of the season, when the Dolphins were crushing opponents, they were running the ball effectively while Tua was throwing to his first read on offense 71% of the time.
Like the 49ers, the Browns have an exceptional defense and the ability to play complementary football. Like Shanahan and McDaniel, Stefanski possesses an elite ability to scheme the run game to set up passing success. And much like the Dolphins, Stefanski’s offense, in his one successful year with Baker Mayfield, was predicated on extreme success of Mayfield’s first reads.
It seems simple, right? They have all these pieces, and it’s working in San Francisco, so why not Cleveland?
Simply put, Deshaun Watson is not Tua, and he’s absolutely not Jimmy G or Brock Purdy. Just a few short years ago, Watson was regarded as one of the three best quarterbacks in the league as he led the NFL in passing. Watson can move, he has a big arm, and he loves to hold on to the ball as he tries to find plays downfield. With Watson receiving best contract in NFL history, Stefanski’s task is not as simple as fitting the last pick in the NFL draft or a forgotten game manager into a respected coach’s system.
Stefanski is tasked with trying to figure out how to do what he knows wins football games around the preferences of a superstar. It’s no easy task. We watched this exact situation put an end to the Russell Wilson era in Seattle as Russ wanted to cook and Pete wanted to scheme. The results of that split were evident last season as Geno Smith took the Seahawks to the playoffs while the Broncos became the laughingstock of the league.
No one here is insisting that the current Watson situation is directly comparable to the Russell Wilson dilemma. What we are saying is, just like with Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur in Green Bay, figuring out how to coexist with a star quarterback who has succeeded in the past is a difficult task for a head coach. And that difficult task becomes even more complicated when your path to winning is based on a successful coaching style that might not mesh with your star’s style.
There’s no telling what this team will look like for the rest of the season, but Kevin Stefanski’s ability to fit what he believes wins games in with his quarterbacks wants will be paramount both in the team’s success and his future with the organization.
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