Cleveland’s Front-Loaded Divisional Schedule Could Define Their Season
Photo Credit: Philip G. Parley via USA TODAY Sports
With a fully healthy and available Deshaun Watson, a freshened-up receiver room, and revamped defensive line, the Cleveland Browns are set to make a splash in the overcrowded group of AFC playoff contenders this season.
But one obstacle stands in their way early, something entirely out of their hands: a weirdly front-loaded divisional schedule.
Within the first five weeks of the season, the Browns go up against the Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans, and then the Baltimore Ravens, leading into an early Week 5 bye. If the Browns can get off to a hot start, it would put them in pole position in the AFC North playoff race. On the other hand, any early-season struggles could lead to them drowning in a deep pool of AFC playoff contenders.
The Browns’ season opener at home against the Bengals should be an amazing game headlined by two gun-slinging quarterbacks. As any Browns fan will tell you, the team is 8-2 against the Bengals in the last five years, with a 5-0 home record in that time span. Safe to say the Browns have the odds in their favor, right?
Well, Cleveland is going up against what many believe to be a top-three team in the league, one coming off a stinging 20-23 AFC Championship loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. No matter what a previous record says, the Browns must be prepared to face off against Joe Burrow and a red-hot Bengals team looking to bounce back from their narrow playoff defeat.
The Browns aren’t just going up against an amazing Bengals team, they are also going up against a curse. Since 2005, up until last year, Cleveland endured an almost inconceivable record of 0-16-1 in season openers. The Browns seemingly broke this spell last season thanks to Cade York’s leg, when Cleveland beat former QB Baker Mayfield and the Carolina Panthers during their last Week 1 game by a game-winning field goal.
The team cannot have this overwhelming historical failure in Week 1 affect their home opener, which is as critical as ever. With that being said, this game could go either way. If the Browns come out on top, it will set the tone for the season.
Next up is a Monday night showdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Acirsure Stadium. History is rarely on the Browns’ side, and that’s true again when it comes to away games against the Steelers – or really just games against the Steelers at all. In the last 10 years, the Browns have gone 5-15-1 against the Steelers, 1-10 when they have to travel to the Steel City. That one measly victory is significant though, as it was the Browns’ 2020 playoff win. You might like to think of this as a curse-breaker, but the Browns haven’t won in Pittsburgh since.
The current away record against the Steelers, which is a whole lot worse if you go back more than 10 years, spells a loss in big bold letters for the Browns in Week 2 – if you’re only accounting for history. The truth is, this Browns team boasts so much talent that if second-year QB Kenny Pickett and the Steelers are too focused on their past bulldozing of the Browns at home, Cleveland could win this game and start to balance the away record.
In Week 3, the Browns go head to head with the Tennessee Titans at home. Cross all the fingers in Cleveland, but that should be a relatively easy win. The Titans finished 7-10 last season after a weird year that saw QBs Ryan Tannehill, Malik Willis, and Josh Dobbs all get starts. The Browns’ run defense was a major shortcoming last year, but if Jim Schwartz and his newly reconstructed defensive line can restrain Titans star RB Derrick Henry, this should be the easiest game for the Browns prior to the bye.
To finish off this four-week stretch, the Browns stay at home to face the final opponent in the division, the Baltimore Ravens. If we’re only thinking in terms of historical trends again, the Browns chances look shaky; in the last 10 years they have posted a record of 6-14 against Baltimore, going 4–6 at home.
That’s a decent home record, all things considered, but unlike the previous Bengals and Steelers statistics, this 10-year stretch won’t likely influence either team. The Browns do get home field advantage, always a huge asset in a divisional game, but out of the three season-opening opponents, the Ravens might be the hardest to gameplan for.
Yes, Lamar Jackson has been torching teams with his legs ever since he picked up a football, but that won’t be the main problem the Browns will be trying to figure out. With Todd Monken taking over the offense, the addition of former Browns receiver Odell Beckham Jr., and young receivers Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman, the Ravens are turning the page on being a run-first offense, instead using Jackson’s legs as a complement to his arm.
This change in the Ravens’ offense will heavily rely on whether or not Jackson can be as efficient in his transformed role, not to mention the health of Jackson and their WR1 OBJ, both of whom have checkered injury histories. But the Ravens have long been a wild card in divisional matchups with the Browns, always seeming to pull out a miraculous victory in the end.
Following this gauntlet of divisional games, the Browns rest up with an early Week 5 bye. This can either help them reset and gameplan if they are below .500 or allow them to heal as they build momentum with a winning record.
Hopefully the latter is the case, as starting next season 1-3 – or, yikes, 0-4 – most certainly spells disaster for the remainder of the season. Watson has done it before with the 2018 Houston Texans, who started 0-3 but ended up finishing 11-5 and winning their division. Starting below .500 with a front-loaded divisional schedule would be even harder to overcome, as division games essentially count as two when in post-season consideration.
The Browns are due to shake up the AFC North, so if this team can overcome the Week 1 and Steelers away-game curse, defeat the Titans in an easy-to-win match, and not allow the new Ravens scheme to catch them off guard, we could be seeing a Browns team get a head start on the race to become divisional champions.
Up Next