Measuring The Dalvin Tomlinson Effect
Photo Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports
There is seemingly an endless number of metrics by which experts will convey to fans how well their team’s defense is playing. Each week you can find hard takes backed by everything from the most basic stats through advanced metrics from sites like Pro Football Focus and Pro Foootball Reference. But as Frank Caliendo used to always say when impersonating John Madden, “The key to winning the game is having more points than the other team.”
The Browns currently lead the NFL, allowing scores on just 17.6% of the possessions they have faced. No other team is below 20%. That’s right, after years of mediocrity, Cleveland finally has a defensive juggernaut on their hands.
While the credit has been distributed thoroughly among many deserving parties, including new coordinator Jim Schwartz, his superstar Myles Garrett, new addition Za’Darius Smith, and the big uptick in the linebacking corps and secondary, there is a man I believed before the season would be crucial in making it all work: Dalvin Tomlinson.
Defensive tackle isn’t the sexiest position in the league, but there’s a reason general managers hand out high-dollar contracts to the monsters in the middle. When a player can perform in the DT spot at an extremely high level, he can change the entire trajectory of a team.
With Minnesota, Tomlinson’s ability to thwart doubles and swallow up running backs, fullbacks, and tight ends changed the scope of their defense. There’s a reason that his former middle linebacker, Eric Kendricks, put on Jekyll and Hyde performances based on whether or not he had Tomlinson healthy and in front of him.
This offseason, the thought was if the big man could bring that same level of production to Cleveland he could elevate everyone. For the first time in years, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and his linebacker mates could be left relatively free to roam the field and make plays without having to constantly shed second-level blockers. With linebackers free and capable, the secondary would be able to hold their own while worrying less about the shallow field. Opposing quarterbacks would be forced to move off their first read and look for options. And all of that would aid an elite pass rush in getting home without much help. Exactly the way Jim Schwartz prefers to get it.
Four games in, that’s exactly what we’ve seen. Yet people will line up to tell you Tomlinson’s metrics have been shockingly poor. His 5.95% pressure rate so far this season is a noticeable dip from last year’s 8.62% pressure rate with the Vikings. He has yet to record a single run stop on 46 run-defense snaps, while playing 61% of Cleveland’s total defensive snaps — the most of any Browns DT.
So what gives? Is the defense playing so well that they are hiding a dip in Tomlinson’s production? Or are metrics simply not capable of properly conveying someone like Tomlinson impact. The truth is, either option can be viewed as a positive for Cleveland.
Unfortunately, stat sheets and analytics websites don’t necessarily measure swallowed-up blockers or the amount of times linebackers are free to make a play without a fullback in their face. Pro Football Focus doesn’t have a category for ranking how a big man’s mere presence can shift an offense’s approach. Tomlinson is putting the sort of performances that matter to his coaches on the all-22 that’s what’s truly important.
And if by chance those numbers represented an accurate dip in play (which they don’t), that would be fantastic news. Tomlinson has been too good in this league for far too long and still has time left in his prime. It’s reasonable to believe that he will rise back up to the sort of second-level numbers he’s shown in the past. And then what happens? What do you do with this front when the stud DT starts making those impact plays on a more consistent basis?
Don’t get me wrong, Myles Garrett is still the Hall of Fame-level superstar that makes this defense go, but my suspicion before the season was that he and all his teammates would be granted a new level of freedom due to Tomlinson’s presence. Watching the tape, I still find that to be the case, whether or not it can be proven with numbers. But again, like Frank Caliendo/John Madden said, the only numbers that matter are the final score, and Dalvin Tominson’s impact on the final score has been and will continue to be paramount.
Up Next