Cleveland Is About To Be A Case Study In RB Value
Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
As new rules have driven the NFL towards a passing-centric league, young, innovative coaches and analytics have buried the value of the modern running back. Superstars who would’ve been untouchable even a decade ago have flooded the trade wires and free-agency market over the past year.
Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris knew all this as he took the podium during the preseason ready to address Saquon Barkley’s new contract. “They ask me alone — ‘The game’s going to rely on you, you need to do this for the team, you got to do this right here. Hey, it’s time to close out the game. Hey, we need to lean on you right now,’” Harris said. “And it happens a lot of places like Cleveland, Tennessee, even with the Niners; there’s numerous teams where this happens at… Only time when they choose to say that [the position] is devalued is when it’s time to pay the running back. … It’s not devalued at all. They just don’t want to pay a running back.”
The debate that has consumed the football world over the past few seasons is about to get its perfect case study in the aforementioned Cleveland Browns.
With the unfortunate injury of Nick Chubb, the Browns will elevate their young, unproven Jerome Ford along side the newly signed but familiar Kareem Hunt to carry their running game forward. Football fanatics will be waiting with bated breath as they watch to see how the Browns’ offense navigates the forced change to their running back room.
Conventional wisdom would suggest a diversion in scheme, with head coach Kevin Stefanski shifting towards his $230 million quarterback and talented receiving corps. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
Despite claims that Stefanski would mold the offense around Deshaun Watson, Cleveland is currently number one in the NFL in rushing, having dropped over 400 yards through two games against historically difficult division-rival run defenses.
Stefanski is the premier run-game schemer in the NFL, and he has the attempts and yards to prove it. Dating back to his time as a play-caller in Minnesota, few coaches have displayed such commitment to the ground game.
- 2019 (as offensive coordinator with the Minnesota Vikings)
- fourth in rush attempts
- sixth in rushing yards
- 2020 (as head coach of the Browns)
- fourth in rush attempts
- third in rushing yards
- 2021
- ninth in rush attempts
- fourth in rushing yards
- 2022
- fifth in rush attempts
- sixth in rushing yards
With a talented defense, a (supposed) superstar quarterback, and good weapons to play with, Stefanski’s ability to scheme, combined with Chubb’s absence, presents the perfect opportunity to decipher the true value of a talented back on a good roster.
On one hand, it would be impossible not to feel Chubb’s absence. He belongs in a class of his own. His ability to shake defenders as well as run them over is as unique a skillset as exists in the league today. You don’t just replace the third-highest yards per carry average in NFL history. On the other hand, the team put up over 200 yards on a difficult Steelers’ defense on Monday night after Chubb exited.
But what could the drop-off look like over the long haul? What will yards per carry average look like with inarguably less-talented running backs being given the exact same role with the exact same offensive line and the exact same play caller? Or, if roles and opportunity change because of a decline in talent, does that mean the offense itself will also experience a drop-off in efficiency?
We have no idea what Stefanski looks like without an elite runner at his disposal. His entire stint with the Vikings coincided with the heyday of the immensely talented Dalvin Cook, and he walked into one of the league’s best backfields when he arrived in Cleveland.
Maybe things will remain status quo. Stefanski will pound opposing defenses with Ford and Hunt. Perhaps the traditional running-game struggles, but we wind up seeing increased creativity out of Elijah Moore. We’ve already seen Moore come out of the backfield as well as run the ever-important jet sweep. Maybe his input increases? Perhaps it’s time to take the training wheels off of Watson and let him start to earn the NFL’s best contract. Let the threat of a big-time passing game open up the running game.
Regardless of the path chosen by the head coach, we will have a good understanding of how good this offense can be without an all-world running back. Let’s be clear, it would always be better to have a guy like Nick Chubb than to not. But football teams aren’t built in vacuums, they’re built in a reality where the salary cap exists. As the game evolves and schemes change, general managers and cap specialists try to find the right balance of money and talent to get their teams to a Super Bowl. That’s how we got to this philosophical argument in the first place. But for the first time, NFL personnel and fans alike have a control group to watch their respective beliefs about running back value play out.
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