Can Kevin Stefanski Get Comfortable With Being Uncomfortable?
Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
The training wheels are officially coming off and, for better or worse, the Cleveland Browns are going all-in with Deshaun Watson leading Kevin Stefanski’s historically run-centric scheme. But there’s just no possible way that general manager Andrew Berry and Stefanski absorb the overwhelming public backlash of acquiring and doubling down on the much-maligned signal caller without experiencing a drastic overhaul in offensive philosophy, right?
Since becoming a play caller in the NFL back in 2019, Stefanski’s offenses have produced some of the NFL’s most prolific rushing attacks.
- 2019 (as offensive coordinator with the Minnesota Vikings)
- fourth in rush attempts
- sixth in rushing yards
- 2020 (as head coach of the Browns)
- fourth in rush attempts
- third in rushing yards
- 2021
- ninth in rush attempts
- fourth in rushing yards
- 2022
- fifth in rush attempts
- sixth in rushing yards
Despite having a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback in Kirk Cousins with the Minnesota Vikings and a former No. 1-overall pick in Baker Mayfield (who we all know was far more hype than substance), Stefanski has largely hid his quarterbacks behind his dominant running game. His offenses have ranked 28th or worse in passing volume in three out of the past four years.
But that has to change in 2023, doesn’t it? The organization can’t swing a move for Watson (and all of his baggage) with the intention of turning him into a glorified game manager by feeding Nick Chubb with a ball-control offense. Don’t get me wrong, Stefanski is one of the best offensive minds currently in the NFL. But his ability to get comfortably uncomfortable outside of his usual running ways is one of the more fascinating storylines heading into 2023.
With Cleveland’s offseason acquisition of Elijah Moore, the buzz is starting to get louder about how he’ll be unleashed in Stefanski’s first full season with Watson under center.
#Browns Elijah Moore beats Denzel Ward for TD in red zone 7 on 7s pic.twitter.com/n1PTw8ybYb
— Fred Greetham (@FredGreetham9) July 27, 2023
Let’s not forget that Amari Cooper experienced a bit of a renaissance with 1,160 receiving yards in his debut season with Cleveland after a forgettable 2021 with the Dallas Cowboys. Donovan Peoples-Jones is poised for another sizable jump as he enters his fourth year (and a contract year to boot) after posting 841 receiving yards on nearly 100 targets last season. And despite playing 47% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps last season and underwhelming with just 214 receiving yards, 2022 third-round pick David Bell has the potential — and the pedigree stemming from his All-American collegiate career at Purdue — to carve out a serious role if Stefanski opts to open up the offense.
Throw in the uniquely talented David Njoku at tight end, and Stefanski is working with a borderline Ferrari of a passing game — as long as he’s comfortable leaving the cul de sac and taking it for a spin on the freeway.
Give credit to Berry for taking a long-term approach by assembling Cooper, Bell, and Moore over the past year as viable targets for Watson’s first full campaign in Cleveland. But what good are all these toys if Stefanski reverts to his ground-and-pound scheme?
It’s worth noting that Stefanski experienced a noticeable philosophical change last season. In 2021, the Browns were in 12- or 13-personnel on 47% of their first downs, good for second-highest in the league. 12-personnel is one running back, two tight ends, and two receivers; 13-personnel is one running back, three tight ends, and one receiver. Stefanski unapologetically leaned into his run game by bulking up his formations on early downs. However, last season the percentage of 12- or 13-personnel first downs dropped to 34%. That was tied with three other teams for the 10th-highest frequency.
This tells us that Stefanski was at least warming up to the idea of accommodating a quarterback of Watson’s stature in a more spread out scheme. Additionally evidenced by Cleveland ranking 29th in 11-personnel (one running back, one tight end, three receivers) frequency on first downs at 32% in 2021. But in 2022, that 11-personnel frequency on first downs jumped to 55%. Even though they still ranked in the bottom half of the league at 17th, that’s exactly the kind of progress one would like to see for your passing game after trading for Watson.
Now that Stefanski dipped his toes in the spread-it-out waters last season, it’s time to climb the ladder of that high dive and cannonball into the pool by unleashing Watson with more frequent 11-personnel usage and sufficient passing volume that no longer belongs in the kiddie pool of the NFL.
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