Browns Playoff Formula: Make Opponents QBs Look Like Theirs
Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Calling the Cleveland Browns “Old School” doesn’t seem to do them justice. “Old School” implies the way the game was played in the ‘70s, when running backs ruled the field and it felt like every game was a battle of wills between offensive and defensive lines.
That’s Cleveland’s game, for sure, even in an ideal situation. But in recent weeks it’s only intensified. With the Browns already having gone through Deshaun Watson, PJ Walker, and now perhaps Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback, the Browns are looking at the possibility of starting 38-year-old Joe Flacco on Sunday. Forget “Old School.” This team’s possibly going to look like it predates the forward pass.
With that said, it’s no surprise to anyone that Cleveland’s quarterbacks sit as the worst performance at the position in the entire NFL. Their 28th in passing yards, their nine touchdowns are tied for 29th in the league, their 13 interceptions are tied for third, and to tie it all together, their 65.8 passer rating is dead-last in the NFL.
What is surprising is that might not matter. At 7-4, Bear Bryant football is alive and well. The Browns currently have a 69% chance of making the playoffs, according to the New York Times’ model. They haven’t needed Watson to grind out statement wins against the likes of the San Francisco 49ers, the Indianapolis Colts on the road, and AFC North rival Pittsburgh Steelers. Cleveland very well could not just get into the playoffs, but be a feared opponent once they do.
It’s all thanks to one little trick: They can’t raise the level of their quarterback play, and they’re not really going to try. Instead, they’re going make your field general play like theirs.
The Cleveland Browns defense has allowed 141 first downs this season, the league average is 215…
It's the fewest allowed thru 12 weeks in the PFF era 🤯 pic.twitter.com/b30GyuPgnS
— PFF CLE Browns (@PFF_Browns) November 29, 2023
Here’s the Tale of the Tape between the Browns’ quarterbacks and the unlucky souls who get to face the Browns:
Yards Per Game: 181.2 (CLE) vs 142.0 (OPP)
Completion %: 55.5% (CLE) vs 55.6% (OPP)
Yards Per Attempt: 5.09 vs 5.46 (OPP)
Touchdowns: 9 (CLE) vs 10 (OPP)
Interceptions: 13 (CLE) vs 9 (OPP)
Passer Rating: 65.8 (CLE) vs 73.2 (OPP)
Sure, if you’re choosing between an amalgam of Cleveland’s quarterbacks and their opponents, you’re probably picking the latter. But their defense evens it out so that what should be a huge mismatch every week becomes a matter of differentiating between a Zach Wilson quarterback vs Mac Jones. At that point, who cares? It’s a stunning lack of high-level play on both sides. Not to mention, a stunning reversal of the entire league’s trend to favor passing environments. If you hate watching offense, each Cleveland Browns game belongs in a museum.
Higher-profiles will get the spotlight for this in a moment, but we have to highlight Martin Emerson Jr.’s role for stopping the pass. When facing All-Pro cornerbacks like Denzel Ward, it’s an easy call to throw it someone else’s way. The Browns ensured they won’t get burned by that in hitting an absolute home run in the third round of the 2022 Draft.
Emerson Jr. is surrendering a passer rating of just 30.8 in single coverage, according to Pro Football Focus. Between he and Ward having 16 combined passes defended, it goes a long way to explaining how two receivers on the other side have a tendency to disappear on a weekly basis.
Of course, so does having Future Hall of Famer Myles Garrett in his absolute prime. The Browns’ defense is 10th in the NFL with 34 sacks, and pretty incredibly, tied for fourth with 237 yards lost to sacks. Garrett accounts for 38 and 40% of those totals, respectively, with another 23 quarterback hits, 12 tackles for loss, and another seven weeks to add to those gaudy numbers and torture opposing QBs.
Even with those strengths, though, their injuries and deficiencies at quarterback mean Cleveland is playing with thin margins for error. It’s imperative that Ward return soon, and perform to his usual standards. Even a small slip in letting quarterbacks not have to travel a half-century or more back in time widens the gap between Cleveland’s quarterbacks and their opponents. To be a threat, the Browns must maximize their ability to make opponents play their style.
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