At Least One NFL Scout Still Believes In Deshaun Watson
Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports
The last two seasons have been a rough go for anyone showing optimism for the Deshaun Watson trade. While Watson’s gone 8-4 as a starter for the Cleveland Browns, playing just 12 games with a mere 14-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio and an 81.7 QB Rating is tough.
Even tougher was Watson not even being on the field as his former team, the Houston Texans, whooped Cleveland 45-14 in the postseason. So was watching Will Anderson, which came to Houston with an assist from one of those first-round picks Cleveland spent in the Watson trade, getting a sack in that game. It also wasn’t easy watching Houston parlay Cleveland’s 2024 first-rounder into Stefon Diggs, the sort of impact receiver the Browns sure could have used.
But while the trade is still in a place that makes many in the Dawg Pound go Woof., there is still some hope that Watson can deliver a season (or more) that elevates the Browns to the next level. Is it delusional, given that he hasn’t played elite football since 2020? It’s hard to say at this point, but at least one NFL Scout is buying into Watson having a breakout season in Cleveland, per Sports Illustrated’s Evan Massey.
‘It hasn’t gone well yet, but that success is coming in 2024. He has never been so locked in and motivated. I think this is the season that the Browns feel really good about the king’s ransom they traded to get him,’ the scout told me.
It’s good to have someone in-the-know vouch for Watson, but Cleveland is just dealing with a near-unprecedented situation. There are so few quarterbacks who have been as good, as young as Watson was. Only two others (Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson) averaged a passer rating of over 100.0 in their first four seasons (among players with 30-plus starts before through age-27). Just 18 have even averaged a 90.0 passer rating in NFL history.
So what happens when an elite young quarterback disappears off the map for three years? We don’t really know. As a group, these 18 quarterbacks remained pretty stable over their careers.
We can see two real exceptions. The first is Carson Wentz, who went from going 32-24 with a TD-to-INT ratio of 97-to-35 in his first four seasons, to working his way out of three starting jobs in the past four years. Wentz is 15-21-1 over that span with a much worse 56-to-32 TD-to-INT ratio. His story isn’t totally done, but he’s 31 and on his fifth team in five years. That doesn’t look too good for him.
The other is Colin Kaepernick, who posted a 3-16 record with a 22-to-9 TD-to-INT ratio in Years 5 and 6 of his career. He famously has been out of football since, and we never got to see what he might have looked like returning to the field.
Also muddying the waters for Watson is what kind of situation he’ll be in with Cleveland. With everyone in-house and healthy, Watson’s supporting cast could be quite good. That’s not the case, at least from what we can reasonably guess. Nick Chubb being at his peak would take a ton of pressure off Watson, but we have no idea how healthy and productive he will be after two knee surgeries.
The Browns also need to resolve the Amari Cooper situation. In Watson’s two seasons in Cleveland, Cooper has been his favorite target without question. Cooper accounts for 49 of Watson’s 204 completions (24.0%), 42 of his 119 first/touchdowns (35.3%), and 848 of his 2,217 passing yards (38.2%). Unless they want to bet on instant chemistry with Jerry Jeudy, the Browns need to get Cooper in camp and ready to go.
It’s nice that at least someone in the NFL world is buying into Watson, but nothing is going to let Browns fans rest easy with that trade until a healthy Watson puts up results on the field. Whether it can happen or not is anyone’s guess, even if you’re an NFL scout.
Up Next