The Deebo Samuel To Buffalo Speculation Is Missing the Mark
Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
Apparently, if you’re an aging wide receiver with declining production and want out of town, you should be scrolling on Zillow in the Buffalo area. We’ve already seen the hot stove fire up and cool off over the idea of the Buffalo Bills trading for Cooper Kupp. Now another California wideout is getting tied to the Bills: Deebo Samuel.
A lot of teams could use Samuel on their teams, including, on paper, the Bills. The former All-Pro is a versatile receiver who can move the chains and has extra value as a gadget-play rusher, averaging 274 yards (nearly six yards per carry) and 5.33 touchdowns between 2021 and 2023. At his best, he’s fast, elusive, and tough.
DEEBO SAMUEL BREAKS AWAY FOR THE 76-YARD TD.#SFvsSEA on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/NnDR0UqBlv— NFL (@NFL) October 11, 2024
But before asking “Where do I sign up?” you have to note that Samuel was decidedly not at his best last season. His 44.7 yards per game were the fewest of his career, and his four all-purpose touchdowns (three receiving, one rushing) was his lowest since an injury-riddled sophomore season. His targets fell for the fourth-straight season, which is especially concerning after the San Francisco 49ers lost Brandon Aiyuk in late October.
On top of that, Samuel just turned 29 last month, and of course, players don’t tend to get better at that age. As with Kupp, that’s enough reason to not pursue Samuel, but there are schematic reasons and beyond that should scare Buffalo off.
Yes, the Bills need a No. 1 wide receiver, and maybe you still think Samuel’s talent is at that level. Even if you grant that, Samuel is best when operating out of the slot — a tendency that pre-dates Aiyuk’s arrival in San Francisco. 39 of Samuel’s 51 catches were either in the slot or on screens. As you know, the Bills have the slot covered with Khalil Shakir, who specializes in the slot and short-yardage throws in which Samuel excels.
The biggest difference between the two is this: Samuel’s cap hit for 2025 is $15.8 million, while Shakir’s is $3.3 million. And look at Shakir’s 2024, where he caught 76 passes for 821 yards and four scores. Can we even say that Samuel’s an upgrade over Shakir?
Even if Buffalo values Samuel’s abilities as a gadget player, can’t the Bills simply bring back Ty Johnson? Sure, Samuel out-gained Johnson in yards from scrimmage (806 to 497), but Samuel got significantly more usage than Johnson. In terms of yards per touch, Samuel takes an oh-so-slight 8.8 to 8.7 advantage over Johnson. Besides, Johnson had the same amount of touchdowns and shouldn’t require much more than his $1.5 million cap hit in 2024.
It’s that simple: The fit doesn’t exist for Buffalo. If they want, they can fill the best of what Samuel will bring you for, what? A third of the cost of Samuel? There’s value in having all those skills taking up one roster spot instead of two (and him having utility on the outside, where, in fairness, he did take 60% of the snaps in 2024), but it’s not worth $10 million extra against the cap.
No, Buffalo needs a pure outside receiver to line up opposite Keon Coleman, someone who can take the top off defenses. That doesn’t fully line up with what Samuel (or Kupp) brings to the table, and certainly not for the price tag.
It also doesn’t help matters that Samuel was visibly unhappy down the stretch in San Francisco, with his frustrations spilling over on the sidelines. After the whole Stefon Diggs situation, it’s hard to be eager to see Buffalo rushing into a trade with a player who asked out from a team that’s one year removed from a Super Bowl appearance.
For all the talk about the Bills needing a true No. 1 wideout, we seem to forget that the 2024 receiving core brought them within three points of a trip to the Super Bowl. The pass-catchers sure didn’t stop Josh Allen from winning an MVP. While injuries made the Amari Cooper Experiment underwhelming, bringing back Cooper is a better fit for the Bills’ offense than trading for either Samuel or Kupp.
The media is quick to draw conclusions as to what teams might be involved with which players on the trade block, but this feels like barking up the wrong tree. The Bills (probably) don’t need Samuel, and (probably) can’t afford him. If Buffalo moves to solve issues at wide receiver, they have better options than trading for a potentially poor fit.
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