Will Josh Allen’s MVP Campaign Survive the Anti-Quarterback Backlash?
Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
The meaning of the MVP award can be confusing. It doesn’t necessarily reward the NFL’s best player, but rather, it rewards the player who provides the most value to their franchise (hence the “V” in MVP).
The notion is that the award, for better or worse, is that it’s a quarterback award. Since 2007, Adrian Peterson (2012) has been the only winner who was not a quarterback. It seems that no matter what a non-quarterback does, the best quarterback on the best team will win the award by default. Last season, seven of the ten top vote-getters were quarterbacks. In 2021, Cooper Kupp won the Wide Receiver Triple Crown and only received one out of 50 first-place MVP votes. In the year prior, Derrick Henry broke 2,000 yards rushing and didn’t receive a single first-place vote.
Is this my way of getting out my frustrations about quarterbacks being the only position group allowed to win MVP? I mean, yeah, kinda. It’s very annoying that virtually every player at every other position is categorically excluded from being considered the NFL’s most valuable.
Still, just because quarterbacks are over-represented isn’t to say quarterbacks don’t ever deserve the award. Sometimes they blow everyone out of the water and fully deserve to take home the hardware. This season, Josh Allen may finally achieve that ever-elusive MVP award. That is, so long as he can survive the backlash of the award turning into a QB-only affair.
The MVP conversation is over.
It’s Josh Allen.
Respectfully, it’s over. pic.twitter.com/j9X9c2JzlR
— Dan Fetes (@danfetes) December 2, 2024
According to DraftKings, Allen is currently the odds-on favorite to be named MVP at -225. He’s been a top-five vote-getter three times in his career, but he’s been the proverbial bridesmaid, and never the bride.
Despite being the most likely winner this season, he still has to play well enough in December to fend off a non-QB who is having a statistical season for the ages.
Look at the reaction of grown men who have played football for decades and are at the top of their profession watching Saquon Barkley do something they have never seen before.
— Kevin Negandhi (@KevinNegandhi) November 5, 2024
Saquon Barkley currently leads the NFL in rushing attempts, yards, and yards per carry. He has only played in twelve games, but already has more rushing yards than 2023’s rushing leader, Christian McCaffrey. He has 13 all-purpose touchdowns (second to Derrick Henry), which is even more impressive when you realize Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has 12 rushing touchdowns, nine of which have been the result of a tush push. Barkley’s not even getting those goal-line carries — only three of his touchdowns have come within 10 yards. He has been inarguably the best player on an Eagles team that is currently 10-2 and riding an eight-game winning streak.
Despite Saquon’s historic production and Allen’s non-dominance in stats, the latter is seemingly the favorite to win an award that has been force-fed to quarterbacks. And as long as the voters aren’t sick of the status quo, the award is Allen’s to lose. The most statistically dominant quarterbacks of the season have been Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, but each of them lacks the gaudy win totals that Allen has (Lamar currently has eight and Burrow has four). In addition, Jackson has had Derrick Henry by his side the entire season, and the Bengals’ putrid defense has prevented Burrow from getting MVP consideration that he might have received otherwise.
None of this is to say all of Allen’s stats aren’t among the NFL’s best. He is second in the NFL in QBR and has thrown just five interceptions. He’s currently the only QB in the NFL to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs this season, and Patrick Mahomes has largely taken himself out of the MVP race due to underperforming this season. Allen is also tied with Jayden Daniels for the second-most rushing TDs amongst quarterbacks (6).
To fully justify winning the MVP, Allen not only has to continue to pull off wins, but he needs to win with authority and statistically produce, especially since Barkley has shown zero signs of slowing down. This Sunday, the Bills will face an LA Rams team that has given up 7.9 yards per pass, which is the fourth-most in the NFL. However, the Rams are one of three teams to allow zero rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season.
The following Sunday, he has a chance to gain yet another statement win against an elite Lions team in Detroit. Afterward, Allen has two games against a New England Patriots team whose passing defense has allowed 22 touchdowns, picked off only six passes, and allowed a 99.3 passer rating this season. The QB has to be licking his chops for that opportunity in an MVP campaign.
Allen has been the Bills’ clear most important player; without him, Buffalo almost assuredly would not have been the first NFL team to clinch their division. While he hasn’t dominated in the statistics category, he has been the definition of an MVP. If he can produce elite stats along with key wins in the home stretch of the 2024 season, he can leave even the voters sick of the MVP being the sole property of quarterbacks without a legitimate argument to give it to someone else.
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