Dialing Back Has Created Buffalo’s Big Success
Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
Despite some major turnover this past offseason, the Buffalo Bills are right in the thick of the Super Bowl contender talk. The reason why? It’s the same as most good, consistent NFL contenders: They’ve adapted to the changes thrown their way. Thanks to Joe Brady, Buffalo’s offense has been has transformed itself in 2024, while putting up 29 points per game in the process.
Arguably, the biggest trend in the league as of late has been a shift to emphasizing short passing and gadget plays. Under Ken Dorsey, that wasn’t how Buffalo did things. As the NFL changed, Dorsey stayed pat and kept holding onto the long ball. The offensive coordinator dialed up 82 deep passes — defined by PFF as traveling 20-plus yards through the air in 2023. Those results were mixed, as Josh Allen completed just 29 (35.4%) of those passes for 962 yards, eight touchdowns, and nine picks.
Brady knew that wasn’t going to cut it, so he’s been far more selective in throwing deep. This season, Allen is 18-for-46 on deep throws (39.1%) for 549 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Choosing those spots has even slightly increased Allen’s efficiency when throwing long. In 2023, he averaged 11.7 yards per attempt on deep throws, and this season, it’s up to 11.9 yards per attempt.
The shift was intentional, with preparations for it being made at the draft. Choosing Keon Coleman in the second round in April gave a clue about the new offense. NFL Analyst Lance Zeirein had the following draft profile of Coleman:
“Above-the-rim artist with circus catches resembling a scene from the tents of Cirque du Soleil. Coleman has excellent size and ball skills. He’s not sudden and doesn’t have great speed, so beating press and creating breathing room against tight man coverages will depend on his ability to improve as a route-runner. The former star basketball player has a rebounder’s blend of extension and timing to give jump-ball defenders the blues… Keep an eye on him as a big slot receiver who can be a red-zone specialist.”
They easily could have looked to replace Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis with a deep threat, but they instead looked at a big-bodied jump-ball receiver who wasn’t exactly known for his go routes.
Coleman isn’t the only one that has found success in Brady’s style of offense. Khalil Shakir has been targeted 26 times behind the line of scrimmage, on which he’s accumulated 229 yards and one touchdown. Shakir’s short game has been one of the reasons why the ball has been getting out of Allen’s hands so much faster this season. Allen is averaging 2.56 seconds to throw, which is 11th-fastest in the NFL. 56% of Josh Allen’s yards also come after the catch, another indication of Buffalo’s quick-passing game paying major dividends.
So, what has this new approach actually done to the offense? Well, to start, it’s led the Bills’ offense to an average of 29.1 points per game, which is third-best in the league, trailing only the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens. We’re talking about a nearly 2.5-point upgrade over last year’s Bills team, which was ranked sixth in the NFL.
At first glance, a 2.5-point boost might not seem like that much, but in a league where 23.4% of games are decided by three points or fewer, getting an extra field goal’s worth of production is worth quite a lot. It sure would’ve made a difference last season against the Kansas City Chiefs.
It helps when Allen is 100% in lockstep with his play-caller. He’s flourished under Brady’s offense, and it’s clear that he’s embraced the less-is-more mentality. Towards the end of the Dorsey era, it was clear the QB and the coordinator weren’t on the same page. We’re also seeing the rest of the offense buying in. Back in September, offensive tackle Dion Dawkins had nothing but high praise for Brady.
“He’s the best offensive coordinator I’ve ever had — how he respects us, how he supports our brand, how he supports our everything,” he glowed. “He’s just a different type of dude.”
The ultimate test is going to come in the playoffs, as the Bills, Allen, and Brady will be judged by whether or not they can raise the Lombardi Trophy. But it’s clear that the Bills are getting an extra gear from Allen in a season where most thought he’d take a step back, and Brady’s quick-passing style of offense was the key to unleashing that potential.
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