Can the Bills Play 3D Chess While Resting Up?
Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
The Buffalo Bills locked up the No. 2 seed with their commanding victory against the New York Jets on Sunday. Because of that, they have significant flexibility heading into Week 18 against the New England Patriots.
There is nothing for the Bills to play for, and their biggest objective this weekend is to not pick up any injuries. But the Patriots have everything to play for, or more precisely, to not play for. And here we come to the game within the game. The Bills have an opportunity to play a little 3D Chess and make the Patriots a pawn in a scheme to keep Buffalo atop the AFC East for the foreseeable future.
The Patriots are going through quite the rebuild, and the first step of that included Drake Maye. Unfortunately for Buffalo, Maye has shown major flashes this season and is looking like he’ll be a really good quarterback for a long time. That’s a big ingredient, and they’re in pole position to get another potent accelerant for their return to relevance: The No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 Draft.
The Bills definitely don’t need New England getting that.
The New York Giants had control of the “top spot,” before yesterday, but they knocked off the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, putting the Pats in position to land the pick leading into Week 18. All they need to do is lose.
As of Monday morning, it hasn’t been officially announced how the Bills will play, but Josh Allen might have spoiled the plans by talking postgame about how key it was to wrap up the No. 2 seed because now they will be able to rest some guys.
The only real reason the Bills should even think about playing Allen would be to pad his MVP case, but that’s an individual award, and the first thought has to be for the team and how they can win the Super Bowl. Allen has been dealing with a broken left hand all season, and he’s spent the last few weeks dealing with a right arm injury. An extra week for Allen and the rest of the Bills’ starters to not take any bumps will keep them healthy heading into the playoffs.
But there’s one extra, hidden bonus if the Bills can get some rest and their fill-ins can pick up Buffalo’s fourth loss of the season.
Most teams want that first overall pick to get their franchise QB. Maye takes that off the table for New England, but crucially, not for the No. 1 pick being a quarterback. There are three QB-needy teams behind the Patriots in the Giants, Tennessee Titans, and Las Vegas Raiders. Remember a couple of years ago when the Carolina Panthers had their eyes on Bryce Young? They ended up trading away D.J. Moore, their 9th overall pick, another first-round pick, and two second-round picks to the Chicago Bears in exchange for the No. 1 pick. And that was for Bryce Young!
Only sliding down a pick or three probably wouldn’t net New England quite that haul, but it would at least get them a few high-quality assets, without sacrificing much talent for a drop in draft position.
The Pats are still many pieces away from competing, making that type of trade even more appealing for a team like them — and more dangerous to Buffalo’s would-be AFC East dynasty. Even someone like Travis Hunter won’t make them an instant Super Bowl contender, but a couple of other high picks (and perhaps, still getting Hunter) would get them close. Plenty of tiebreakers are involved, but if the Patriots win, they could drop all the way to the No. 4 pick, depending on what happens with the other teams in the top five.
Look, the players all want to win, and no one playing for the Bills will take the field thinking about New England’s draft position. They’ve got bigger things to focus on. So, too, do the Patriots, who aren’t going to lose on purpose just so their team can draft some hot-shot rookie to steal their job. But the decision-makers on the teams? Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott can decide to do some subtle gamesmanship on Sunday.
Of course, they’re not the only team that can play 3D Chess next week. The Patriots could end up resting Drake Maye and if that decision helps them land the No. 1 overall pick, so much the better. Coach Jerod Mayo said on Monday that all options were on the table regarding how the team plays this game. But regardless of how New England rolls, the Bills still have a chance to play the ultimate spoiler by giving as many players a well-deserved week of recovery time and allowing the Patriots to win the game.
Make no mistake, the biggest benefit for the team would be to get their starters some rest to be as healthy as possible for the playoff grind. But don’t sleep on that long-term benefit of doing their small part to keep the Patriots in no-man’s land for a bit longer. It’s a meaningless game for Buffalo, meaning they can’t lose momentum, and they can derail the Patriots’ momentum heading into the offseason as a bonus. It’s a win-win… unless you’re the Patriots.
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