Bills Keys To Victory Over The Lions
Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
After a disappointing loss last week against the LA Rams, the Buffalo Bills will look to bounce back on Sunday at Ford Field against the Detroit Lions. This is a matchup between two of the best teams in the NFL, and both teams are hoping this is a potential Super Bowl preview.
The Bills know they have to be better than they were last week on the defensive side, especially against the run, but that’s a pretty obvious one and something we don’t need to spend much time on. Let’s take a look at some of the other Bills’ keys to ensure they leave Detroit with a victory. A loss here would all but eliminate any chance for home-field throughout the playoffs, making this game even more important.
Dion Dawkins Must Win His Matchup
Dion Dawkins has played like an elite offensive lineman all season, and with that comes the responsibility of matching up with an elite player across from him. Aidan Hutchinson is still out for the Lions, but Za’Darius Smith is not someone to take lightly. In his four games since joining the Lions via a trade from the Cleveland Browns, Smith already has 20 pressures.
Dawkins has allowed only 18 pressures so far this season and according to PFF he has a pass protection grade of 80.5, which ranks 18th among 62 tackles with half their team’s snaps. If Dawkins can keep that up and handle Smith, it’s going to make Josh Allen’s job a lot easier.
Speaking of Allen…
Allen Must Handle The Pressure
What do we know about this Lions’ defense? If there’s anything about them, it’s that defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn loves to dial up the pressure. The Lions’ defense has the third-highest blitz rate in the league (32.2%), and they allow the lowest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks when blitzing at (67.8). Allen is completing 72% of his passes in a clean pocket, but when he’s being pressured, that number drops all the way to 43%.
Even with strong offensive line play, the Lions blitz so much that Allen will face some pressure. He needs to handle it, and even find success out of it. Maybe if he can beat the blitz by throwing a couple of touchdowns, that could make the Lions hesitate to bring more pressure, which could open things up for the Bills.
Must Jump Out Early
Allen can say this better than me.
“This is an offense that you got to keep up with,” Allen told the press. “You’re going to have to score points on the offensive side of the ball, we understand that, we know that. But we’re just trying to go 1-and-0, whatever that may be. If it’s 3-nothing, it’s 3-nothing, if it’s 42 to 43, and we got to find a way to score one more point than those guys.”
At halftime against the Rams, the Bills were down 24-14, and even though they fought back, that 10-point deficit turned out to be key, as they lost by two points. If they fall behind early in this game, Campbell isn’t going to take his foot off the gas, and coming back will be an even taller task than last year.
Finish Drives
The most crucial matchup in this game is a strength for each team: the Bills’ red zone offense against the Lions’ red zone defense.
One of the reasons the Bills have already picked up 10 wins has been their ability to finish drives with touchdowns. Buffalo has punched the ball into the end zone on 68.5% of their red zone possessions, which is the fifth-highest percentage in the NFL.
The Lions’ defense has been stingy in defending those situations, giving up touchdowns just 47.2% of the time, the fourth-best mark in the league. Field goals aren’t going to win this game, so the Bills need to make sure that they are being extra aggressive in those opportunities.
It might not take a perfect game to pick up their 11th win on Sunday, but it’s going to take something pretty close. Especially if the run defense keeps struggling, it will be even more crucial that the Bills’ offense picks up the slack and ends their drives scoring seven points instead of three.
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