Is the Football World Overreacting To the Bills Losing?
Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
The Bills Mafia seems to be falling apart again and the football media vultures are circling Buffalo after their loss against the LA Rams on Sunday. While the Kansas City Chiefs were doinking in a field goal to pick up a win, the Bills were bleeding touchdown passes against and wasting timeouts on their way to their third L of the year.
After failing to keep up with the AFC-leading Chiefs, fans are obsessing over the usual flaws and miscues. Yes, the Bills’ run defense was a problem, and some of the coaching decisions were questionable, but how much should we panic? Was this just one bad game? Or is this an omen of an inevitable loss in the playoffs?
The Bills had their issues, and we will get to those, but let’s focus on the positives first. Obviously, first on the list is Josh Allen‘s incredible six-touchdown day. The MVP frontrunner showed that no matter how poor the rest of the team might be performing, Buffalo is never out of any game with him under center. Without Allen, the game doesn’t even go down to the wire.
We also need to give a shoutout to Khalil Shakir, who at this point is clearly the Bills’ No. 1 receiver. He had himself a day with five receptions for 106 yards and a touchdown. Then, there’s… dang, are we at the end of the list already? OK, then, moving on.
The defense, especially the run defense, has been a weakness all season, and it cost them again on Sunday. Don’t be fooled by their only allowing 3.0 yards per carry to Kyren Williams, which might signal an improvement from earlier this season. They still let him find the end zone twice and surrendered two rushes of at least 10 yards.
Also, when Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp are given carte blanche to do whatever they want, kinda-sorta limiting the run doesn’t really matter. More concerning than Buffalo getting shredded was Bobby Babich’s inability to adapt with in-game coaching adjustments. The Bills’ base defense is zone, but as Stafford picked them apart drive after drive, Babich refused to even try switching to man defense to see if that would help.
Not even having any man looks up their sleeve against Stafford was baffling. As Mark Gaugin of the Buffalo News noted, Stafford entered the game with the eighth-best passer rating in the league against zone coverage. As a coach, you want to play to your strengths, sure, but when Plan A fits your opponents’ Plan A, and their Plan A is winning… you have to have a Plan B. Babich apparently did not.
But the defensive coordinator wasn’t the only coach to make a head-scratching decision. Sean McDermott’s decision to run off clock with a QB sneak with a minute left was bad, but then wasting a timeout instead of just getting to the line to try again compounded the mistake. The Bills were then forced to attempt an onside kick instead of trying to make a stop to get the ball back in good field position.
Even Tom Brady, the most mid color commentator working today, was puzzled by the decision. “We’ve got a 3% chance on an onside kick,” Brady detailed on FOX’s broadcast. “To me, take three shots throwing it, don’t use a timeout, and then you can kick it deep, use your three timeouts, and still get the ball with good time.”
So, are we overreacting to this loss? Absolutely not.
In the Super Bowl era, teams were 245-0 when they had six touchdowns and zero turnovers… until Sunday when the Bills lost with those exact stats. Allen couldn’t have played a better game, and even the most heroic effort of his career came up short.
We all know exactly what this Bills offense can do, but the defense has threatened to hold them back all season. It seems every week, we hope for the defense to figure it out and get better, but they continue to struggle, even when they avoid a total collapse. Now we know what happens when they bend and break.
It wasn’t just the Bills’ secondary that caused them to get dismantled by Stafford. One of the reasons Stafford went off was because he faced almost no pressure. The Bills let him sit back in the pocket and finished with zero sacks.
That’s not going to cut it in the playoffs. On paper, it looks like the most beatable Chiefs team in years, but one thing we know about Patrick Mahomes is that he can pick apart defenses that can’t pressure him. With a clean pocket, Mahomes has completed 75.6% of his passes this season, a number that drops all the way to 47.6% when teams put pressure on him.
With Allen lining up at quarterback, Buffalo always has a chance, but their lack of a strong defense will make the playoffs a little hairy. If they continue to play this way, their season will probably end, once again, in disappointment. We don’t say this lightly, but Sunday’s game should put you in full-blown panic mode.
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