Bills vs Broncos Will Bring Us Both Ends Of The Successful QB Spectrum
Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images
The Buffalo Bills are currently 8.5-point favorites in their Wild Card matchup against the Denver Broncos. A lot of that almost certainly is because of the talent gap at quarterback between these two teams. The Bills are blessed to have a top-three quarterback and a perennial MVP candidate in Josh Allen. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos are led by rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who is so old that he once faced off against Joe Burrow in college. If it weren’t for Jayden Daniels, this geezer would win Rookie of the Year, which just doesn’t feel right.
Jokes aside, Nix’s play has pleasantly surprised Broncos fans, who are used to seeing their first-round quarterbacks turn into Paxton Lynch or Drew Lock. It took a couple of years, but Sean Payton was finally able to get Russell Wilson out of town and the Broncos are now in business, making the playoffs for the first time in nine years. Even when Payton was stuck with the second-creepiest Subway spokesman in history, the Broncos were still able to find success here and there.
— ¡BUM CHILLUPS AKA SPENCER HALL! (@edsbs) September 29, 2022
Such was the case last year when Sean Payton and his band of misfits managed to upset the Bills at Highmark Stadium. Denver’s defense generated four turnovers, one of which happened on the very first play! The Broncos were able to keep the game close enough for Will Lutz to nail the game-winning field goal, giving Denver the 24-22 win. If that game taught us anything, it’s that Payton has the coaching pedigree to make even pedestrian talent look good. Everyone knows Allen is an elite quarterback, but will Allen’s transcendent talent surpass Payton’s system?
THE BRONCOS DEFENSE STARTS OFF WITH A HUGE PLAY.
Forcing a fumble from Bills RB James Cook, the Broncos have the ball in excellent field position 👀
— Last Take™ (@TheRealLastTake) November 14, 2023
There aren’t a lot of quarterbacks in the NFL who are an offensive system unto themselves, but Allen is among them. With all due respect to Joe Brady, Buffalo’s offense wouldn’t be nearly where it is if not for their star QB. That’s not to say Brady is a bad coordinator, far from it, but he is most certainly a beneficiary of Allen’s talent, and like Brian Daboll before him, that talent has helped Brady become one of the hottest coaching candidates in the league.
Denver is on the opposite side of the spectrum, as they’re led by a Super Bowl-winning head coach who knows exactly what he’s looking for in players and is capable of maximizing their talents. Nix is a system QB, and while he executes Payton’s scheme perfectly, he’s also entirely dependent on it. In fairness, most NFL quarterbacks are. There used to be a time when being labeled a “System Quarterback” was considered an insult, but nowadays system quarterbacks are hot commodities.
Even though this will be Nix’s first playoff start at the professional level, the Broncos aren’t your typical first-time playoff team, despite ending their nearly decade-long drought. Nix spent five seasons in college and started in four bowl games throughout his collegiate career, which gives him more experience than most rookie quarterbacks in high-stakes games. Not to mention, Payton brings 35 years of overall coaching experience to go with his ring. So expect the Broncos to act like they’ve been here before, even if they haven’t.
Still, it will be very tough for the Broncos to pull off the upset this time around. Nix has limitations as a deep ball passer, and the freezing temperatures in Buffalo won’t help matters, either. It’s also worth noting that Nix doesn’t have any experience playing in cold weather games, having played college at Oregon and Auburn, where snowfall is virtually non-existent. The same can be said for Payton, who spent most of his coaching career down in New Orleans, inside of a dome.
That said, the Bills have Josh Allen, and the Broncos do not. The man is responsible for 41 touchdowns this season, and his abilities propel Buffalo to success in a way Nix simply can’t. But you can’t count out Payton, especially given last year’s upset with a quarterback he hated. While Buffalo should ultimately prevail, don’t be surprised if Payton and Nix find a way to keep this a competitive one-score contest.
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