This Is The Last Dance For Joe Burrow 1.0
Albert Cesare/Imagn Images
If you haven’t seen the ESPN documentary “Man In The Arena” about Tom Brady, I couldn’t recommend it more. Yes, even as a Bengals fan.
Of the many fascinating aspects of the 10-part series, the thing that keeps sticking in my head is how segmented Brady’s career was. We tend to think of that New England Patriots run as one giant dynasty. From an organizational standpoint, that’s true. But Brady really was the only player that remained a constant throughout those six championships. As the head coach, Bill Belichick was the other throughline, but Brady’s rosters and assistant coaches changed constantly, and each major era of Brady’s career required a different version of himself.
All in all, Tom Brady essentially had four runs. Tom 1.0 was basically the Brock Purdy of his day, an obscure player asked to essentially manage games on a loaded team before proving they were something more.
Tom 2.0 got Randy Moss and Wes Welker and started knocking down records at the peak of his powers. Tom 3.0 settled into his Drew Brees Era, throwing for 4,000 yards like clockwork before getting a chip-on-his-shoulder curtain call as Tom 4.0 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where he proved once and for all that his longtime coach needed him more than the other way around.
It’s not unique for superstar NFL quarterbacks to have these different eras in their careers, though what makes Brady truly transcendent is that he lifted the Lombardi in each of these eras. The general shape of this pattern, however, resembles the life cycle of an elite quarterback in the salary cap era.
With quarterbacks taking up a larger and larger slice of that salary cap pie as their career goes on, the team has to find a way to shift and rebuild as less and less money gets allocated elsewhere. It’s the main reason we see so many future superstars win a Super Bowl on their rookie deal, and oftentimes, never again. They have all the talent, but the financial situation puts everything else in their favor.
Once that rookie deal runs out, the real challenge begins. Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and all the league’s top-paid QBs have had to transition to a new type of roster after their first run, and then often several other times throughout their careers. Just two players, Brady and Patrick Mahomes, have repeatedly reached the pinnacle this way. Both transitioned from roster build to roster build while continuing to win titles. More often, the best leave their 1.0 phase and head to their 2.0 team and can’t ever quite get to the top of the mountain again.
We are watching Josh Allen navigate the transition as we speak. Unlike Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Ben Roethlisberger, Allen was not able to win a title on his rookie deal and is now facing a rebuild with a roster that has to account for his giant contract. Perhaps he will still get it done, but the challenge is inarguably greater.
Joe Burrow received a much-deserved contract extension before the beginning of the 2023 season. But the bulk of his money doesn’t come in until next year. 2025 is when the Bengals superstar will exceed 12% of his team’s cap. That number is important because the only quarterbacks in the salary cap era to have won a title above that amount have been Brady and Mahomes. They’ve each only done it once.
Burrow 1.0 has the benefit of having more raw talent than Brady 1.0, and more offensive weapons at his disposal. The disadvantage for Burrow 1.0 is that the lack of an elite supporting defensive cast means he has to do much heavier lifting than Brady 1.0 ever did. And unless the Bengals find a way to pull a 2007 Moss-type steal, the burden on Burrow 2.0 will only increase.
When the team opted not to deal Tee Higgins in the offseason, it confirmed their understanding of the situation. This is an all-in year. A Last Dance for Joe Burrow 1.0. The end of the season will likely bring Higgins and Trey Hendrickson’s departures, and usher in a desperate need for a youth movement. It’s all hands on deck. Cincinnati should be scouring every free agent option and making every possible trade call. Joe is healthy and the schedule is favorable. It’s time to give this roster everything they can and hope it can send Burrow 1.0 off with the Super Bowl win he deserves.
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