Joe Burrow Versus The Recency Bias
Phil Didion/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK
The NFL is in the midst of releasing its list of Top 100 Players, and the Bengals’ signal-caller has found himself on the list once again, albeit in a much lower spot than last year.
JB9 coming in at #39.
Stream #NFLTop100 on NFL+ pic.twitter.com/F8XTvZIS8H
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) July 30, 2024
Burrow dropped 33 spots from his ranking of 6 last year. It was largely due to his injury-plagued 2023 season, in which his preseason calf injury hampered his ability in the early part of the year, followed by a wrist injury against Baltimore that ultimately did him in.
The narrative of Burrow being an injury-prone quarterback is largely due to recency bias. His previous two years of being a top quarterback in the league are currently overshadowed by his most recent season, in which he missed significant time due to multiple injuries. There’s also perhaps lingering concern about his rookie year, where he suffered a season-ending ACL injury against Washington at the knee graveyard that is FedEx Field.
Burrow was ranked below several of his quarterback peers, including Brock Purdy (28th), Jordan Love (34th), and perhaps controversially, this guy.
Surely the internet will be fine with Tua making #36, ahead of Joe Burrow #39, on the NFL's Top 100 list.
— Jeremy White 🚂 (@JeremyWGR) July 30, 2024
To his credit, Tua has been solid for the Dolphins. In 2023, he led the NFL in passing yards, due in large part to the fact that Tyreek Hill is really, really fast. Still, Tua was at the helm of one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses last season. However, he didn’t have a single 300-yard passing game against teams with a winning record. He also turns into a backup-level QB any time the temperature dips below 70 degrees.
Burrow (5-2 in the postseason) has had a far more accomplished career than Tagovailoa (0-1 in the postseason). While Tua’s most recent season of being fully healthy and lobbing prayers to Tyreek Hill against Pop Warner-level defenses gave the Dolphins’ quarterback an edge in the these rankings, the general consensus is still that Joe Burrow is a significantly better quarterback.
“Yes, Tagovailoa’s best in 2023 was certainly better than what Burrow put on tape a year ago,” Pro Football Network’s Adam Beasley said. “But it took almost the perfect storm: Tua had his first healthy season, Tyreek Hill put together a career year, and Mike McDaniel surprised the league with dynamic new wrinkles to the Shanahan system. Burrow, meanwhile, endured horrendous injury luck that limited him to just 10 games and 15 touchdown passes. Of course, Tua was better. Burrow was barely available.
“The truth is Burrow’s best is better than Tagovailoa’s best,” Beasley added. “When the lights are brightest, Joe Cool has proven he can handle the heat. Tagovailoa has not.”
The path back to the top-10 is simple: Burrow must overcome injuries and the recency bias to climb the list once again. For the small stretch where he was fully last season, Burrow was his old self as one of the NFL’s most elite quarterbacks. The stretch began in Week 5, where Ja’Marr Chase statistically outperformed the entire Arizona Cardinals’ passing offense all by himself.
I think Ja'marr Chase won from every WR alignment possible yesterday… X, Z, #3 Trips, Bunches, Stacks, Minus Splits, etc
15-192yds, 3 TD. Whew.
Master class in moving your star around and force feeding him. Well done. pic.twitter.com/opLACBS5Bq
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) October 9, 2023
Burrow understands that he’s got some work to do to climb back to his previous heights. “You don’t play football, people forget about you,” Burrow said on the “Pardon My Take” podcast. “If you’re not out there and people aren’t watching you, then there’s nothing to talk about. I’m going to give people something to talk about this year.”
There is no doubt that Burrow is among the most elite quarterbacks in the league when he’s healthy. He’s the NFL’s all-time leader in completion percentage. Burrow’s the only active quarterback who has defeated Patrick Mahomes’ Kansas Chiefs in the playoffs. Since 2017, he’s the only quarterback not named Tom Brady or Mahomes to be the AFC’s starting quarterback in a Super Bowl. He’s also been a major catalyst in shifting the Bengals towards a winning culture, both in the standings and with his impact on the organization’s investment in itself as a whole.
Since Joe Burrow joined the Bengals
– New uniforms
– new helmet (white)
– new locker room
– new turf
– Signing of top tier free agents
– upgraded game dey experiences
– ring of honor
– highest paid player in the NFLWhat am I missing?
— Bengals Graphics (@BengalsGraphic5) July 30, 2024
(Readers were quick to point out that he failed to mention the indoor practice facility.)
All Burrow has to do is stay on the field. He has one of the NFL’s best and deepest wide receiver corps at his disposal. This group is headlined by Ja’Marr Chase, who has the ability to be the most productive receiver in the league in any given week. The offensive line is making huge strides. The Bengals even put a fridge next to Burrow’s locker!
TRENDING: #Bengals QB Joe Burrow got his own fridge by his locker in the teams new locker room.
Ja’Marr Chase & others are very jealous about it
💀💀
(Via @zimwhodey)
pic.twitter.com/DuUHcaIoYB— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) July 31, 2024
(If he doesn’t nickname his fridge “Joe Cool”, he’s making a horrible mistake)
The pieces are in place for Burrow to have a rebound season and reclaim his elite status. All he has to do is be available and healthy to put his injury-prone reputation, which is furthered by the recency bias, to bed.
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