Can the Bengals Beat the NFL’s Math Equation
Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
When discussing Joe Burrow, all the chatter seems focused on health. Can he stay healthy? What do the Bengals need to do to keep him upright?
Burrow took an opportunity in a recent interview with Complex to address his health situation and focus going forward. When asked about his goals for this season the superstar quarterback was candid. “Well, number one, I want to be on the field for all the games,” he told the publication. “I know I’m going to play well when I’m out there… the biggest strides this year are going to be my body and learning how to get through the season, get through practices with my body, feeling tip, top shape.”
The focus on Burrow’s health makes sense given the quarterback’s availability seems to dictate whether the Cincinnati Bengals can compete for the Super Bowl. Yet lost in all the talk about off-season programs, rehab, and prevention is perhaps the more important Cincinnati quarterback question:
Can Joe Burrow and the Bengals beat the NFL’s math equation?
Since 1994, only two quarterbacks have led their team to a Super Bowl win while earning more than 13% of their team’s salary cap. Steve Young did it with the 49ers (on a deal that predated the cap) and Patrick Mahomes did it last year. Only two quarterbacks eclipsed 12% of the cap: Peyton Manning with the Denver Broncos in 2015 and Tom Brady with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020. Everyone else has either been a superstar on a rookie deal or a veteran on a team-friendly deal.
The Bengals are at the edge of this cliff. This is their last season before they cross the quarterback cap threshold. This year, Burrow will make $29,551,112 which is 11.17% of the salary cap. After that, his number soars into the $40-to-50 million range over the next four seasons.
With Cincinnati’s historically cheap approach to roster building and the extremely competitive nature of the AFC, the most important talkers concerning Burrow aren’t about whether or not he can stay healthy. They’re about whether the team can go all-in and win this year. It’s a big question, but if the answer isn’t “Yes,” the question becomes even tougher: Do Burrow and the Bengals have what it takes to beat history going forward?
On July 15th, we officially received word that Tee Higgins is on his way out. The NFL deadline for the team and Higgins to agree on a contract after signing the franchise tag came and went, meaning Higgins will be headed to free agency next off-season.
We knew it was coming, as no team is going to drop $300 million-plus on three players (between Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Higgins) on the offensive side of the ball. The good news is that the team’s decision to not trade him before the draft shows an understanding of the opportunity they have this year. This is the year to go all-in, and if that means someone like Higgins walks for nothing, so be it.
It’s the same reason they didn’t entertain offers after both Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson after both submitted trade requests. The Bengals didn’t have to accommodate them, and they didn’t, because they need to win this year. The front office is right to pull the all-in lever this year and maximize their depth at any cost.
The Bengals know the math. They know that if they can’t reach the top of the mountain now, the real challenge will begin. That’s when we find out how great Burrow really is. Will it be enough to do what only Mahomes has done in teh salary cap era?
You can’t give someone a taller order. Mahomes appears to be on track to being, without exaggeration, the greatest quarterback in the history of professional football. I know people will think that’s crazy talk, given Tom Brady success, but Brady took team-friendly deals all the way. Mahomes’ ability to win last year while getting top-dollar — earning nearly 17% of his team salary cap — was nothing short of unbelievable. He broke the mold.
A lot of people will probably bark at the notion of putting Burrow in Mahomes’ stratosphere. There have been decades of football, and only one person who can do what Mahomes just did. But just because Burrow doesn’t make Mahomes’ flashy, flick-of-the-wrist, no-look, side-armed throws doesn’t mean he’s not right there with Mahomes.
Rarely have we seen someone like Burrow. He stands in the pocket in the biggest moments and delivers throws that even the best quarterbacks in the history of the game couldn’t consistently deliver. His combination of talent, confidence, and leadership are rare, and just because he doesn’t look like Mahomes while doing it doesn’t mean he can’t affect the game in the same way.
The true test will come as he is forced to make do with the ramifications of his contract. Mahomes succeeded on that crazy number while the team around him changed (and often downgraded) dramatically. He elevated guys like Rashee Rice and Isaiah Pacheco. As players like Higgins come, can Burrow elevate his less-skilled supporting cast in the same way that Mahomes does?
This year will be a key indicator. If by the end of the season, one of the guys gunning for the No. 3 wideout spot looks like a breakout star, that will be a very strong indicator.
It’s not all about Burrow fixing the holes his contract creates, though. His abilities have to be matched with the front office drafting and developing cheap talent that Burrow can mold around him. If Amarius Mims and whomever they draft as the heir to Higgins turn out to be stars, the team has a real shot.
If not, well, just look at how the Buffalo Bills are navigating this difficult path to walk. We’re currently watching the Bills unsuccessfully try to rebuild around Josh Allen as his contract has kicked in. While Burrow’s health will remain the most important and discussed factor for 2024, those concerns will be overtaken by whether Burrow can work magic when his team is low on resources going forward. If the Bengals can’t lift the Lombardi Trophy this year, they’ll have no choice to find out whether they can join the Kansas City Chiefs as the only modern team to defeat the NFL’s math equation.
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